All Senate eyes are on Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.
Senate Democrats are continuing their negotiations with Sinema, a member of their caucus, on a healthcare, tax, and climate spending bill that would need only 51 votes to pass due to the chamber’s budget rules, rather than the usual 60 votes needed to overcome a Senate filibuster by Republicans.
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) struck the deal last week on what became the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. The bill has the support of the rest of the Democrats in the Senate, who have a majority in the 50-50 chamber due to Vice President Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote.
Republicans also are trying to sway Sinema away from supporting the bill as she seeks changes to the legislative text.
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The bill is a scaled-back alternative to Build Back Better, a sweeping social spending and green energy bill that Manchin sunk last year when he objected to its price tag and raised concerns over inflation. Sinema also did not support the previous version of the bill.
The deal on an alternative measure came as a surprise to many and was announced by Manchin within hours after the Senate passed the bipartisan CHIPS Act, a bill aimed at helping the United States microprocessing industry compete against China. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) had previously threatened to kill that measure if Democrats pursued a reconciliation bill, which requires a simple Senate majority for passage, rather than 60 votes.
Senate and House Democrats expressed surprise and cautious optimism about the deal, while Republicans blasted the proposal, which caught them flat-footed. The White House offered its support to the deal, while President Joe Biden lamented that the bill wasn’t everything he wanted.
But Sinema has not yet made her position on the bill clear, with her office telling reporters since its announcement that she was reviewing the text. And Sinema has often been at odds with the majority of her Democratic colleagues. Like Manchin, Sinema refuses to change Senate rules to scrap the filibuster, arguing Democrats would be in the minority again at some point and would need the rule to block Republican proposals.
CNN reported that Sinema discussed the bill in a private call with business groups on Tuesday, asking their opinion on the way a provision implementing a 15% minimum tax on corporations is written.
The deal does contain a measure closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, which Sinema opposed during the original Build Back Better negotiations. She has reportedly told other Senate Democrats she wants that provision removed from the deal, indicating she is at least open to supporting it.
No Republicans have offered their support for the legislation, so Senate Democrats would need to secure the votes of all of their members to pass the bill through the evenly divided Senate, with Harris likely breaking a tie. But there remain roadblocks outside the politically stubborn Sinema: It remains under review by the Senate parliamentarian, who will determine whether it meets the criteria for a reconciliation bill that is not bound by the filibuster. Lingering COVID-19 outbreaks on Capitol Hill also continue to affect the operations of the Senate, which does not have a proxy voting rule like the House. Manchin, for instance, announced the deal while he continues to recover from the virus in isolation. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) remains in isolation as he recovers from an infection.
The bill would be a huge and unexpected political win for Democrats, who have had few legislative victories as they seek to defend their congressional majorities in November amid sinking approval ratings for President Joe Biden and increasing voter concern over inflation. The party’s dependence on Sinema to pass the bill has frustrated some members, who fault her and Manchin for their continued support of the filibuster.
Other Senate Democrats, as well as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), have offered their support to the bill while arguing that it does not go far enough.
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“As currently written, this is an extremely modest bill that does virtually nothing to address the enormous crises facing the working families of our country,” Sanders said in remarks on the Senate floor Wednesday. “It falls far short of what the American people want, what they need, and what they are begging us to do. Given that this is the last reconciliation bill that we will be considering this year, it is the only opportunity that we have to do something significant for the American people that requires only 50 votes and that cannot be filibustered. This is an opportunity that must not be squandered.”
