In recent weeks, John Kasich’s most important support has come from the Wall Street Journal editorial board. The Journal‘s opinion pages have published perhaps a handful or two of pro-Kasich pieces—roughly as many as the number of counties that Kasich has won to date outside of Ohio. It is therefore significant that the Journal‘s lead editorial in today’s paper suggests that Kasich might need to call it quits before the crucial Indiana primary in two weeks.
Five Northeastern primaries will take place next Tuesday, followed by the Indiana primary a week later. If, during those Northeastern primaries, Kasich runs his won-lost record to 1-38 in states to date, the Journal hints that his presence in the Hoosier State wouldn’t be needed.
The Journal writes,
“After next week Mr. Kasich will also face a choice of how far to take his campaign. If he wins none of the five northeastern states and stays in the race through Indiana, he risks becoming a spoiler who lets Mr. Trump win the Hoosier State, which would mean the New Yorker could get very close to the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the nomination. Mr. Kasich is betting on an open convention to nominate him, but that requires blocking Mr. Trump on the first ballot.”
Since, outside of Ohio, Kasich hasn’t come within ten points of winning in any state except for tiny Vermont (where he lost by 2 points, and where fewer votes were cast than the number that Ted Cruz won by himself in Dallas County, Texas), the odds of Kasich’s having to face this choice would seem quite good.
Without Kasich’s dividing the anti-Trump majority, Cruz would seem to be the clear favorite in Indiana. Outside of the South, Trump has yet to win a state that is as conservative as the Hoosier State. (Only Arizona and Missouri come close.) But if the anti-Trump majority gets split, Trump could prevail in Indiana—which would leave California as his only remaining hurdle.
