A newly released report from Harvard University says “prolonged” social distancing guidelines may be necessary for two years.
Researchers at Harvard University published a report on Tuesday analyzing the transmission dynamics of the coronavirus, recommending that social distancing protocols be extended until 2022 to stop seasonal resurgences of the COVID-19 virus.
“We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave,” the abstract of the study reads.
“Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022.”
The authors of the study say the report is not to endorse public policy, but rather to “expand the list of options to bring the pandemic under long-term control.”
“The authors are aware that prolonged distancing, even if intermittent, is likely to have profoundly negative economic, social, and educational consequences. Our goal in modeling such policies is not to endorse them but to identify likely trajectories of the epidemic under alternative approaches,” the study continues.
The researchers note, however, that vaccines, therapeutics, and increased critical care capacity could further mitigate the seasonal spread of the coronavirus.
