Enrollment in Obamacare is expected to suffer a “significant slowdown” in 2017 compared to the last two years, according to a new report.
Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings estimates that 2017 enrollment will range between 10.2 and 11.6 million people. As of March, about 11 million people paid for Obamacare for the 2016 coverage year, the report said.
The estimate released Thursday comes as the Obama administration is trying to boost enrollment in Obamacare to keep insurers in the marketplace. Steep price increases likely will offset any gains in enrollment, the report said.
The ratings agency characterized this year’s open enrollment, which starts Nov. 1, as one step forward but one step back.
“Increased outreach to eligible uninsured will add to the marketplace, but potential premium increases will deduct for the current nonsubsidy enrollees,” the report said.
Some Obamacare plans are facing big premium increases in 2017. Some states, such as Minnesota and Tennessee, are facing increases of more than 50 percent.
An estimate from the website acasignups.net found that 32 states will have average increases of nearly 24 percent, although that estimate does include individual market plans sold off the exchanges.
Standard & Poor’s estimates a high re-enrollment rate for people who are receiving subsidies, about 85 percent of the marketplace population, or 9.4 million enrollees.
The administration plans to reach out to uninsured people who are eligible for tax credits and try to get them to enroll. It previously has estimated about 2.5 million off-exchange individuals could get tax credits.
However, enrollees fleeing the marketplaces due to high premiums would offset any gains.
About 1.5 million, or 15 percent of the marketplace enrollees, didn’t receive a subsidy, the report said.
“These individuals are the most price-sensitive … since they are paying full premiums and will be most affected by the premium rate increases expected in 2017,” the report said.
Standard & Poor’s said that the forecast of modest to no growth doesn’t signal “game over” for the Obamacare marketplace, though.
“As we have said previously, we expect a five-year path to stability in the exchange business,” it said. “During this period, pricing corrections from insurers are an unwelcome, but somewhat needed side-effect of the evolving insurance marketplace. But there remains a floor to the marketplace population.”
The Department of Health and Human Services still expects “continued growth in the marketplace,” spokeswoman Marjorie Connolly said. “As the uninsured rate continues to fall to record lows, we are confident that this year’s outreach strategy will keep connecting Americans with coverage they need and want.”
