More than two years into his presidency, Trump has not delivered on two of his biggest 2016 campaign promises: building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and making Mexico pay for it, and repealing the Affordable Care Act. But despite falling short, Trump’s base is sticking with him, and Republican strategists expect his supporters will remain loyal in the upcoming election.
An April Gallup poll showed an 89% overall approval rating for Trump among Republicans, and results of a Washington Post-ABC News poll published April 30 revealed that 74% of Republicans approve of Trump’s handling of immigration.
“They’re pretty loyal to him. His base is pretty rock-solid,” said Republican strategist Glen Bolger. Former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski called Trump’s base “exceptionally loyal.”
Others said Trump’s base would understand that he has been constrained by Congress, which has repeatedly blocked various aspects of Trump’s legislative agenda.
“It won’t hurt him in the least, because his supporters will blame other people for the failure to accomplish those goals,” said Republican strategist Whit Ayres.
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In 2017, the Republican-controlled Senate could not muster enough votes to repeal and replace Obamacare, though it did manage to repeal the individual mandate, the part of the Affordable Care Act that required Americans to buy health insurance. A December 2018 federal court ruling declared the remainder of the ACA unconstitutional, but the law remains in effect. Trump’s Justice Department has sided with the federal judge who made the ruling, arguing that Obamacare should be completely invalidated.
“The president is acting within his executive powers, doing everything that he can,” said Kelly Sadler, spokeswoman for the Trump-allied America First PAC. “We need our do-nothing Congress to come forward and go to the negotiating table. There’s only so much the president can do by himself. I think his base understands that.”
On border security, Trump completely dropped his promise that Mexico would pay for the wall and went to Congress for the money instead. Democrats refused to give Trump the amount he requested, resulting in the longest government shutdown in history.
Despite the setbacks, however, Trump continued to insist the wall be built, declaring a national emergency in February to redirect military construction funds to the wall.
So far, Trump has built only about 40 miles of what he has said will be a 1,000-mile wall. The Department of Homeland Security has begun construction on projects in California, Texas, and Arizona, however, and said it expects to build more than 200 miles of wall using appropriated funding. The Army Corps of Engineers told the president in April that 450 miles of barrier will be complete by the end of 2020, a fact his supporters were quick to point out.
[Also read: Trump approval reaches record high in Gallup poll]
“President Trump is unquestionably the biggest champion of border security, and his supporters know he will never stop fighting,” said a senior campaign staffer. “No one doubts his sincerity and tireless dedication to protecting public safety by enforcing our border and enforcing immigration laws.”
Still, some Republicans criticized Trump for not doing enough to stem the flow of immigration — both illegal and legal. They said there are other ways to stop immigration, besides a wall, that Trump has not fully pursued, and that this could make him politically vulnerable.
Roy Beck, president of NumbersUSA, which seeks to limit immigration, said the president has not done enough to pass mandatory E-Verify, which would require U.S. employers to screen employees’ work eligibility through an electronic system.
“He’s not pushed it,” Beck said. “The question is: How much the base will notice he hasn’t done it? And to the extent that they do notice, people will be disappointed at his lack of effort in that regard.”
[Related: Beto O’Rourke’s border solution: Illegal immigrants are ‘arresting themselves’]
Beck said Trump definitely has room in the next year to “improve his situation,” and that the president’s base would probably understand that he got a late start on building the wall.
“Presumably, a year from now, he’ll be a lot farther along,” Beck said. “It’s only now that there’s significant money that he’s found to move that along.”
Others noted that even if some Trump voters are dissatisfied with his progress on immigration and healthcare, they would be extremely unlikely to vote for any of the 2020 Democrats. Democratic strategist Celinda Lake said a more likely problem for Trump would be voter apathy and depressed turnout rather than defection to the Democratic side.
“I don’t think these Trump voters will vote for Democrats, but they might not vote,” Lake said.
Lake added that she was not sure Trump supporters would be on board with the president’s decision to redirect military money to the wall.
“You’re raiding one half of security to spend it on another,” she said.
