Sandwiched between two weeks of high-profile primary contests, Tuesday night’s elections are relatively low-key. But even without a Don Blankenship on the ballot, there are still a few things worth watching.
Can Raul Labrador win the Republican nomination for governor of Idaho? Idaho Republicans have the opportunity to help put a founding member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus on a path to the governorship, a position of doing rather than obstructing and running the executive branch rather than legislating. But Labrador faces the more establishment-friendly Lt. Gov. Brad Little and businessman Tommy Ahlquist in the primary.
Four other candidates will appear on the ballot, but the nominee is expected to be one of the big three. Little has the blessing of retiring Gov. Butch Otter, who like Labrador served in Congress. Ahlquist, a real estate developer, has wrapped himself in the mantle of President Trump but actually enjoys the support of Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor and 2012 Republican presidential nominee turned 2018 Utah Senate candidate.
Will Rick Saccone make a comeback? The GOP state representative has already lost a special election in a Pennsylvania congressional district Trump won easily in 2016. Now he has the chance to be the Republican nominee once again in the somewhat similar 14th District.
Trump has been given a lot of the blame for Saccone’s loss, as has generally happened when Republicans have underperformed in special elections in red districts since 2017. Yet Saccone also failed to win over some union households that pulled the lever for Trump, another factor that helped Democrats pull off the upset. “Saccone already lost a safe Republican seat,” said the narrator in an opponent’s ad. “Even President Trump called Saccone ‘weak.’”
How liberal can Pennsylvania’s Democratic congressional candidates get? Saccone also lost in no small part because Democrat Conor Lamb did not have to emerge from the primary process and could tailor himself to some of the more conservative stands popular in Pennsylvania’s 18th District.
In the Democratic primary to replace retiring centrist Rep. Charlie Dent, R-Pa., the party is divided. Greg Edwards is a liberal pastor endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. Susan Wilds, a former local official in Allentown, has the backing of EMILY’s List. But Northampton County District Attorney John Morganelli is another leading Democratic candidate, and he is conservative enough on abortion and immigration that he could, with a straight face, talk about joining the Trump team.
So far, Democrats haven’t had much trouble uniting after crowded and contentious primaries. The Hillary Clinton and Sanders factions share a desire to register their disapproval of Trump and congressional Republicans. This race really tests that theory, however, and it is fair to question how energized Democrats will be in the fall if Morganelli wins.
One saving grace: The district, like the rest of Pennsylvania’s congressional seats, has been redrawn. The old district voted for Trump by 8 points. The new one went for Clinton by 1. Billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer is essentially backing anyone but Morganelli, spending on behalf of Edwards and Wild.
Can Blue Dogs still hunt in Nebraska? Former Rep. Brad Ashford is running in the Democratic primary to reclaim the House seat he lost in the 2016 general election as a quasi-incumbent, but that doesn’t mean it will be a cakewalk. The centrist must contend with the progressive challenge posed by Kara Eastman.
In theory, this area should be a Blue Dog stronghold where centrists are most capable of winning in November. But Sanders trounced Clinton in the Nebraska caucus. Former President Barack Obama beat her by an even bigger margin in 2008. There is a left-populist wind blowing even through the Great Plains.
Will money beat a compelling biography among Pennsylvania Democrats? Rachel Reddick is everything Democrats want in a congressional candidate: She’s relatively young, has military experience (a Navy veteran), and a woman. None of that may matter, however, against philanthropist Scott Wallace, a self-funding candidate who has dumped $2.5 million into Pennsylvania’s 1st District Democratic primary.
Wallace has some problems as a general election candidate. He hasn’t lived in the district for quite some time. His wealth may not be as appealing to its blue-collar voters. But as Illinois Democratic gubernatorial nominee J.B. Pritzker can tell you, it isn’t a bad year to have big bucks despite progressive criticism.
