The generally reliable Strategic Vision outfit has released the latest poll regarding the situation in Iowa. On the Republican side, Mitt Romney leads Mike Huckabee by two points, 30% – 28%. The kids at SV also detect the McCain momentum, placing the surging Senator at a relatively strong third with 16% of the vote, leading Thompson by three. In Division III, Ron Paul and Rudy Giuliani are slugging it out for fifth, both at 4%. On the Democratic side, Barack Obama leads angry populist John Edwards by three points, 32% -29%. Courageous former co-president Hillary Clinton is in a close third with 27%. And yet according to my hours of C-SPAN watching yesterday, Chris Dodd is still campaigning like a maniac. Do you think Biden and Dodd will be relieved it’s finally over Thursday night, or have they convinced themselves that they have a chance and will instead be devastated? The Strategic Vision poll has a pretty good sample size – 600 likely voters from both sides of the aisle. As is the case with the other six Iowa polls released in the past fortnight, it was conducted over the holiday period, so don’t be sparing with those grains of salt. In case you’re keeping score at home, Mike Huckabee has led in four of the most recent polls, Mitt Romney in three. If you’re in the mood for an excellent overview about what inferences you can logically make from these polls and which ones you should avoid, Scott Rasmussen has posted an analysis this morning that’s well worth your time. Read the whole thing, but here are some of the salient points:
Specifically regarding the DMR poll, their outstanding and historically dead-on pollster made some assumptions regarding turnout that the other polling outfits eschewed. That’s why the DMR poll is something of an outlier on both sides of the aisle. Which, given the DMR’s record, hardly means the poll is incorrect.
