A poll of likely voters in North Carolina taken mostly after Labor Day finds Donald Trump with a three-percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton, continuing a trend of surveys that reflect a tight race in the critical swing state.
Trump polls at 44 percent among likely voters to Clinton’s 41 percent, with Libertarian party candidate Gary Johnson tallying just 4 percent support. Green party candidate Jill Stein is not on the November ballot in North Carolina.
All but one survey of the state in August showed the contest was within four points, and that was before mid-August. The last six polls in the Real Clear Politics list since then average to a half-percentage point lead for the Democratic nominee.
But the poll’s underlying numbers don’t bode well for her candidacy. Contrary to the nation at-large, North Carolinians have an unfavorable view of Clinton’s old boss, President Obama, whose approval is underwater at 43 to 51 percent. Clinton herself is less popular than Trump, with just 37 percent approving of her and 55 percent disapproving, compared to 41 percent of Trump and 49 percent who disapprove.
North Carolina, worth 15 electoral votes, has mostly been a red state since the Nixon years, voting for the Democratic presidential candidate just twice after 1968. One of those times, however, was in 2008, and it has been contested within two points the last two elections.
The trend appears to be continuing—and Trump shows signs of being competitive into November. In another twist on a polling issue that has plagued him elsewhere, the Suffolk survey shows he actually has consolidated more support among his base than Clinton. 86 percent of Republicans are for Trump, whereas just 78 percent are for Clinton.
He leads among independents and others by 17 points, 46 to 29 percent.
More of the poll results here.
