LOS ANGELES — Joe Biden’s campaign was nearly declared dead before his resounding victory in South Carolina, but a new string of endorsements and positive polling numbers mean the former vice president could have his best showing on Tuesday, when 1,357 delegates are up for grabs.
The “Never Bernie” movement appeared to get serious on Sunday and Monday, with Sen. Amy Klobuchar and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg set to back Biden the night before Super Tuesday. Former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, also announced that he was backing the former vice president on Monday afternoon.
“President Donald Trump has done unspeakable damage to our country, our institutions, and the rule of law,” Reid said. “Democrats need a candidate who can assemble the largest, most diverse coalition possible to defeat Trump and lead our country following the trauma of Trump’s presidency. That candidate is Joe Biden.”
Recent polling shows Biden should also do well with delegates, meeting the polling threshold in large states such as California and Texas. A RealClearPolitics average of polls of Texas has Biden at 18% support, with an Emerson poll released on Monday showing his support at 21%.
In Texas, Biden’s post-South Carolina victory is giving him a major boost there as well. An Emerson poll released Monday has him at 21% support, a 7-point increase from a poll conducted before his first primary win.
Still, if polling holds, Bernie Sanders is set to win both states by double digits. But the exit of Klobuchar and Buttigieg from the race means Biden likely no longer has to worry about missing the minimum delegate threshold in the two megarich states.
That would stave off a nightmare scenario for the Biden campaign, which once risked the Vermont senator winning nearly 1,000 delegates from those two states if no other candidate cleared the polling requirements.
Aside from a competitive second, Biden is also set to win a number of Super Tuesday states. In Alabama, which has a voting demographic most similar to South Carolina, Biden is set to win big and, potentially, to block Sanders from collecting any delegates.
Polls from Virginia, a state where Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 primary by nearly 30 points, has him tying or leading Sanders as well. Only one poll, released late in February, before Biden’s South Carolina win or his endorsement by former Virginia Gov. Terry McAulliffe, by the left-leaning Data for Progress, has Sanders with a lead. Virginia awards 99 delegates to its winner. A total of 1,991 are needed to win the Democratic nomination.
Another delegate-rich state such as North Carolina is also primed to give Biden a win. With 110 delegates up for grabs, the third-most on Super Tuesday, Biden holds a lead over Sanders. A RealClearPolitics average of recent polls has Biden leading Sanders by more than 2 points, but no surveys were conducted after his win in South Carolina. One poll, conducted by the Republican research group Civitas, had Biden leading by 8 points.
Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, which will reward roughly 150 delegates on Super Tuesday, are all favored for Biden as well.
None of this is to say Biden doesn’t still have an uphill battle after Super Tuesday. Sanders will likely extend his delegate lead over him by the time all votes are in, and more than 50% of voters in many states such as Utah, Vermont, and Maine will likely back Sanders.
But the race will be far from over. Instead, a strong Biden showing on Tuesday will only increase the likelihood of a contested convention and ensure the primary extends through the summer. Barring any extraordinary developments, Sanders falling short of winning a majority of delegates on Tuesday will mean it will be likely statistically impossible for him to win a majority of delegates before the convention.
