Bernie Sanders has the momentum, Michael Bloomberg has the money, and Joe Biden has much of the critical African American vote.
The 14 states and entities holding primaries on Super Tuesday will be a battle mostly among the Vermont senator, the billionaire former New York City mayor, and the former vice president. Meanwhile, Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg will compete for a smaller portion of delegates.
“Best guess right now is that Biden will be favored in most of the Southern states because of sizable African American voting,” University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato told the Washington Examiner. “Sanders has a clear edge in California, partly because of a big liberal vote and also Hispanic vote. The latter may help Sanders in Texas, too.”
Super Tuesday states will allocate 1,344 pledged delegates, almost 34% of all pledged delegates. A candidate needs half plus one, or 1,991 pledged delegates overall, to secure the nomination.
California and Texas have the largest number of pledged delegates, with 415 and 228 up for grabs on Super Tuesday, respectively.
A new poll released Friday showed for the first time that Sanders, the Democratic front-runner, could end up winning many or all of the California delegates by being the only candidate to win at least 15% of the vote, a rule the Democratic National Committee established for candidates to qualify for delegates in any of the primaries or caucuses.
CNN polls conducted by SSRS in Texas and California showed Sanders leading in both states but potentially running away with all the delegates in California.
That poll showed Sanders with 35% of support among Democratic voters in California, Warren with 14%, Biden with 13%, and Bloomberg with 12%.
If none of the lower candidates wins at least 15% of the vote either statewide or in congressional districts, Sanders could walk away with all of California’s delegates.
In Texas, a new Univision-University of Houston poll conducted by Latino Decisions shows Sanders in the lead with 26% but Biden and Bloomberg competing for second place, with 20% each.
The poll showed none of the other candidates meeting the 15% threshold for winning delegates, meaning Sanders, Biden, and Bloomberg could be dividing all of the 228 delegates among themselves if none of the other candidates perform better statewide or in congressional districts.
Bloomberg has poured a record $528 million into campaign advertising since becoming a presidential candidate in November. A big chunk of that spending is in Super Tuesday states, where he will appear for the first time on primary ballots.
Bloomberg is also spending heavily on his ground game, outpacing other candidates with staff and campaign offices.
David Mowery, a Democratic strategist in Alabama, which holds a primary on Tuesday, said Bloomberg is a “wild card” in the Alabama contest that might otherwise favor Biden because he has spent so much money on staff and field offices.
“He has four field offices and 30 staffers,” Mowery told the Washington Examiner. “That’s a lot. I don’t know if you’ve seen a governor’s race or a U.S. Senate race here that has that resource investment.”
Bloomberg, according to RealClearPolitics, is polling at about 16.5% in North Carolina, another Super Tuesday state. He trails Biden, who is leading with 25%, and Sanders, with 19.5%.
Three lower-tier candidates, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and Warren, are poised to pick up the fewest delegates on Tuesday.
While some polls show Warren placing second in California, she faces potentially losing to Sanders in her own home state of Massachusetts. A new WBUR poll shows Sanders leading Warren 25% to 17%.
Klobuchar, a new poll indicates, is leading Sanders in her home state of Minnesota, which holds a primary on Super Tuesday.
The University of Massachusetts-Lowell Center for Public Opinion poll found Klobuchar with 27% support from Democratic primary voters, compared to 21% for Sanders and 16% for Warren.
Both Warren and Klobuchar are running low on campaign cash and, while Klobuchar may win her home state, she polls in the low single digits in other Super Tuesday contests.
Buttigieg has been unable to build significant momentum from his win in Iowa and second-place finish in New Hampshire and could end up with few Super Tuesday delegates. He polls in the single digits in South Carolina, California, Texas, North Carolina, and Virginia.
A Deseret News/Hinkley poll shows Buttigieg in third place in Utah, which holds a primary on Super Tuesday, with 18% of the vote, compared to 28% for Sanders and 19% for Bloomberg. Utah awards 29 delegates, a low number compared to delegate-rich states where Buttigieg is polling under the 15% delegate threshold.
Biden is battling Bloomberg to position himself as the centrist front-runner after Super Tuesday. He is poised to win the South Carolina primary on Saturday, which could provide a last-minute boost for his campaign ahead of the Tuesday contests.
Biden is likely to trail Sanders in the delegate count after Super Tuesday, but it is still not clear whether Sanders can win the 1,991 pledged delegates needed to win the nomination without a convention fight in July.
“Sanders will be ahead, of course,” Sabato told the Washington Examiner. “But how far ahead? That’s key.”
