Just as John McCain was the biggest victor when Mike Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, mortally wounding Mitt Romney, so are Perry and Mitt Romney the biggest winners from Bachmann’s elimination of Tim Pawlenty. As icing on Perry’s cake, he easily beat Romney with write-ins, throwing the latter’s status as the putative frontrunner into serious doubt (see below).
Perry delivered a speech in South Carolina that outshone anything the other candidates have produced so far. In his absence, he towered over the proceedings in Ames. Perry still has to prove himself, but at the very least, his entry has muddied everyone else’s prospects. The slow rollout of endorsements from congressmen and obscure state-level politicians just before his official announcement is a sign that his operation is a fairly well-planned one, long in the works. He already has that over previous, unsuccessful late entrants like Fred Thompson (2007) and Wesley Clark (2003).
Perry is probably the biggest winner from Pawlenty’s withdrawal, because it makes him the most obvious and credible alternative to Romney.
A bittersweet victory. All along, Bachmann’s task has been Herculean, but at least it seemed clearly defined. Step One: Kill off Tim Pawlenty. (Check.) Steps Two through Four: Win the Iowa caucuses, keep it close to Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, then kill him off in South Carolina.
But her big win on Saturday is dampened by Perry’s entry, which threatens to turn her into the Mike Huckabee of 2012 – an Iowa winner with nowhere to go next. If Perry has legs, she is probably an underdog in South Carolina. And despite Perry’s snub of Iowa this weekend, he could become the front-runner in the caucuses by the fall. This is significant, because Bachmann has no path to victory without Iowa.
Ron Paul
In the Ames debate, Paul reminded everyone that he lacks message discipline, and that he is probably the worst politician in the entire GOP field, whatever you think of his views. We still view a Ron Paul nomination as something requiring a miracle. Yet Paul, with his near-win in Ames on Saturday, has now at least created a path for himself.
His unexpected last-minute appeal to pro-life voters in Ames was an act of genius. His campaign is obviously not repeating its amateur-hour performance of 2008, which resulted in fifth-place finishes in both the Ames straw poll and the Iowa caucuses.
Paul now has the slimmest chance to win something greater than the moral victory of moving the GOP in his direction. With Rick Perry entering the race and promising to compete in Iowa, Michele Bachmann faces more robust competition for the mainstream caucus vote. A split gives the new and more serious Paul campaign an opening. Even were he to win Iowa, Paul would need a further series of miracles. But if an anti-ethanol libertarian does win in the Iowa GOP caucuses, anything can happen.
He won the Ames straw poll in 2008, then lost the Iowa caucuses to Mike Huckabee. He never recovered. This time, to avoid similar embarrassment, Romney made no effort whatsoever in Iowa, betting instead on New Hampshire. This may have already backfired. His abandonment of Iowa is probably what made Perry’s late entry into the race possible and credible. Even worse, it would be very difficult at this point for him to jump back into Iowa and squash Perry with an early victory. For that, Romney must now count on Bachmann.
Perry, who equally snubbed Iowa, defeated him soundly in the straw poll, despite not being on the ballot. This reminds us of what last cycle’s Iowa caucuses showed: there is little spontaneous demand for a Romney candidacy. Many conservatives view Romney, at best, as Mr. Good-Enough-Maybe. That worked for Bob Dole and John McCain, but if Perry starts looking like Mr. Right, it’s all over, all over again for Romney.
He bet it all on Iowa, and he came in a distant third in the straw poll. His decision to drop out makes perfect sense. For context: Sam Brownback, also from a neighboring state, did substantially better in Ames four years ago than Pawlenty did this weekend – both in percentage terms and in finishing a close third. Brownback still dropped out. Pawlenty rightly called it quits because no one donates to a third-place straw-poll finisher who can’t win the nomination without Iowa. He keeps his powder dry for the veepstakes, a Senate run (his original plan in 2002 had been to run for Senate, not governor) or perhaps a future run for president.
Rick Santorum
His fourth-place finish in the straw poll beat low expectations. It also beat Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, and other candidates whose chances of winning the nomination are even smaller than Ron Paul’s. If he stays in until the caucuses, he will be significant to whatever extent he dilutes the mainstream caucus vote, thus helping Paul against Bachmann and Perry. He could also throw his support elsewhere.
He says he is staying in the race no matter what, and given how much fun he seems to be having, and how little he has to lose, you can’t blame the man. There’s a fine tradition of no-hope conservative candidates driving the debate in the GOP primaries, and Cain seems happy to fill that role.
The Field
Jon Huntsman, Thad McCotter, Newt Gingrich, Gary Johnson. All except McCotter can say they came within 500 votes of beating Mitt Romney (who received 567 votes).
