China’s deployment of a “maritime militia” fleet to a disputed reef in the South China Sea has provoked Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte’s team to criticize Beijing, a rhetorical sea change that coincides with President Joe Biden’s attempt to rehabilitate military cooperation with Manila.
Duterte, a brash populist who disliked President Barack Obama and called for a “separation” from the United States in 2016, tends to soften the rebukes that Philippine national security officials issue when China infringes on Manila’s sovereignty or economic rights. Yet, the latest dispute has spurred Duterte’s staff to warn China against the risk of “unwanted hostilities that both countries would rather not pursue,” just as the Biden administration is trying to stabilize a pact that underpins U.S. military access to the Philippines.
“If this is the start of a new approach by the Duterte government to publicly document and call out Chinese bad behavior, and to unshackle the agencies to do what they want to do anyway, then that’s pretty significant,” Center for Strategic and International Studies senior fellow Gregory Poling said, surmising the shift portends “a pretty significant change in the overall state of play in the South China Sea.”
The latest dispute arose when Philippine officials complained about the arrival last month of more than 200 Chinese vessels near a disputed reef in the South China Sea. The ships did not engage in any fishing, according to reports, and Chinese officials claim the remaining 44 vessels are sheltering from a future storm.
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Philippine officials regard that explanation as nothing shy of an absurd excuse, with some pro-American lawmakers now citing the controversy as a reason to increase military cooperation with the U.S. and other allies.
“Perhaps China would not be so dismissive if we and our allies, both in the Asia-Pacific and the West, show we can band together to maintain a balance of power in the region, including the West Philippine Sea,” Philippine Sen. Panfilo Lacson said Tuesday, using Manila’s preferred name for the disputed waters.
Chinese officials are making no effort to allay Philippine anger. “I don’t understand why some relevant party calls the Chinese fishermen maritime militia. … This saying reflects ulterior motives and hostile intentions,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said Tuesday. “We urge the Philippine side to objectively and rationally view the matter, stop hyping up and stop bringing negative influence to the South China Sea situation.”
That aggressive indifference to the Philippine position makes it more difficult for Duterte to downplay the dispute.
“This does put Duterte in a difficult spot because he typically has been more willing to forgive these actions by the Chinese government and Chinese actors,” said American Enterprise Institute analyst Zack Cooper. “This is a window into what politics in the Philippines might look like post-Duterte, after 2022, when he will eventually leave office.”
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan invoked the controversy to demonstrate the mutual value of the U.S.-Philippines alliance in a conversation with Duterte’s national security adviser, Hermogenes Esperon.
“Mr. Sullivan underscored that the United States stands with our Philippine allies in upholding the rules-based international maritime order, and reaffirmed the applicability of the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty in the South China Sea,” the White House summary of their call noted. “The national security advisors agreed that the United States and the Philippines will continue to coordinate closely in responding to challenges in the South China Sea.”
That dialogue could facilitate the rehabilitation of the Visiting Forces Agreement, a pact that Duterte began to terminate in the midst of a dispute with the U.S. related to his support for extrajudicial killings as a drug war tactic. This military deal is vital to American strategists for two reasons: Any U.S. failure to defend the Philippines from China would be a humiliation that might cause the U.S. alliance network to unravel, and the positioning of U.S. forces in the Philippines could help deter Chinese officials from beginning a conflict with Manila or other American allies.
“Concern about China naturally bleeds into and is eased on by those within both governments who support a tighter U.S.-Philippine alliance,” Poling said.
Cooper cautioned against overestimating the significance of the Duterte team’s new rhetoric, as the president could revert to form with little notice, but he also noted that the Chinese fleet’s obstruction of Filipino fishermen harms the country in an obvious, practical way.
“This is just visible proof that China is using pressure that’s taking food and resources out of the hold of the Philippines, which has a right to them, so I think that’s why this is spurred up so much frustration in the Philippines,” Cooper said. “I wouldn’t assume that this is going to result in any sort of policy change. It could, but [it’s appropriate to wonder if Duterte will change]. The answer might be: No.”
Still, China’s willingness to poke the Philippines in the eye could generate additional political support for hawks in Manila and Washington, Poling suggested, thereby diminishing Duterte’s appetite to fight his pro-America national security team at a time when he is already viewed as having mismanaged the coronavirus pandemic.
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“He runs the risk of undermining his long-term ‘Teflon Duterte’ status by this COVID-19 failure,” Poling said. “He doesn’t want to compound it by being the guy who lost the South China Sea.”
