The Democrats aren’t dead yet.
For several months following big Republican victories in New Jersey and Virginia in off-year elections last fall, congressional Democrats were reeling. Political currents were suggesting a GOP wave of historic proportions — think 2010 on steroids. President Joe Biden’s job approval ratings were sinking, Republican generic ballot numbers were rising, and, key in midterm elections, Democratic interest in voting in 2022 was practically nonexistent.
But after Democrat Pat Ryan held off Republican Marcus Molinaro on Tuesday in a special election to fill a vacant swing seat in upstate New York, winning the 19th Congressional District 51.1% to 48.9%, with most precincts reporting, it appears Biden’s party is poised to put up a fight, at least, in November. This House seat is considered a bellwether, voting for President Barack Obama in 2012, then-candidate Donald Trump in 2016, and the current president in 2020.
“It’s quite clear that the Dems are running well among highly engaged voters,” tweeted Nate Cohn, the New York Times chief political analyst. “If it lasts, that’ll get them pretty far in the midterm, even if they will have some additional ground to cover.” The Democrats, defending a threadbare, five-seat House majority, are hopeful the outcome in New York’s 19th Congressional District is a sign of so much more.
“Republicans can say goodbye to their ‘Red Wave’ because voters are clearly coming out in force to elect a pro-choice majority to Congress this November,” Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, declared in a statement.
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It’s true Democrats seem to have awoken from their electoral slumber since, roughly, late June.
What happened in late June? The Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, eliminating federal protections for abortion rights. Just in case the Democrats needed a little extra motivation, Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, in his concurrence to the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization ruling, invited challenges to Obergefell v. Hodges, the 2015 decision legalizing same-sex marriage. In a new NBC News poll, the GOP’s voter enthusiasm edge had shrunk to just 2 percentage points — 68% to 66%.
Meanwhile, outrage among grassroots Republicans over the FBI executing a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s residence and private social club in Palm Beach, Florida, does not seem to have reestablished a massive GOP advantage on the score of which party’s voters are more excited to pull the lever on Nov. 8 (or vote by mail, as the case may be). And yet, Republicans are still in the driver’s seat heading into the post-Labor Day homestretch of the fall campaign.
In that NBC News poll, Biden’s job approval rating was stuck at 42%, and the GOP was still leading the generic ballot, gauging which party voters would prefer to be in charge in Congress, 47% to 45%. And, as Republican operatives were telling reporters in Washington before the polls closed in New York’s 19th Congressional District, Democrats were likely to benefit in the special election from the fact that it coincided with a closed Democratic primary, despite polling that showed Molinaro leading.
“New York has a closed primary system, meaning independents are barred from voting in party primaries,” a GOP operative told the Washington Examiner Tuesday afternoon. “As a historically blue state, the primary is often effectively the general election for New York Democrats. This means New York Democrats historically turn out at much higher rates for primaries.”
To prove the point, this Republican highlighted Democratic versus Republican turnout figures from recent New York primary elections: In 2016, Democrats comprised 55% of the overall primary electorate, compared to 43% for the GOP. In 2018, which unfolded as a blue wave, it was 87% Democratic, 9% Republican. And in 2020, the Democrats enjoyed a 69% to 29% advantage over the GOP.
Accordingly, Dave Wasserman, House race guru for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, urged caution when using the results in New York’s 19th Congressional District special election to make predictions about the November general election — precisely because the two electorates would not be the same. Many more voters are going to participate on Nov. 8 than did Tuesday, and that could have a significant impact on whether Ryan holds on for another two years (Ryan will be running for reelection in the newly configured borders of this swing seat).
“The caution flag on Dem overperformance? These have all been low turnout specials decided by a fraction of November’s likely electorate,” Wasserman tweeted, referring to Democratic voting performance in the 19th District and recent special elections in other House seats in other states.
“This isn’t to say the environment hasn’t improved for Dems. It has,” Wasserman added. “But specials can’t tell us extent of improvement with fuller electorate.”
And, here’s the kicker: As Nathan Gonzales, publisher of the nonpartisan political handicapper Inside Elections, emphasized in a Twitter post of his own: “Republicans don’t need a wave to win back the House and Senate.” So, even if Maloney is right that the red wave has subsided prematurely, the Democrats are still at extreme risk of losing their congressional majorities.
Republicans can win the House on the strength of historical trends alone, per how the minority party tends to perform when the majority party holds the White House. And in the Senate, Republicans need to flip just one seat, net, to reclaim control of a 50-50 chamber Democrats run solely due to the tiebreaking vote wielded by Vice President Kamala Harris.
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That’s not to say there are no implications for stronger Democratic performance in the midterm elections than previously forecasted. Just ask House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).
Republicans gained 14 House seats in 2020, defying projections for losses. That left Democrats with a barely governable majority that until recently made it nearly impossible for Biden to push his agenda through Congress.
A smaller Republican majority could cause House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) fits as he attempts to govern amid opposition from Biden and produce a Senate in which Democrats will be able to stymie GOP legislation, if not outright than with a filibuster, should Republicans pick up that one seat and win the majority.
