PHOENIX — After months of low polling by Sen. Martha McSally, some in the GOP are starting to believe she may end up keeping her seat after all.
An ABC News/Washington Post survey released Wednesday found the Arizona senator just a point behind her Democratic challenger, former astronaut Mark Kelly. Those results come with the caveat that a separate CNBC poll released the same day found Kelly leading by 8 points.
A RealClearPolitics average of polls has Kelly leading by 5.5 points, although Republicans in the state think the tide may finally be turning against him.
The Supreme Court vacancy created by the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on Sept. 18 could be the key to energizing conservatives. The McSally campaign is focusing on the opportunity to shift the ideological balance of the court dramatically to remind Arizonans of the stakes of the November election.
“People have known Arizona is key for the presidential race,” McSally said Wednesday on Fox News. “Now, we’re key to ensure that the Supreme Court nominee goes through and that we’re able to shift the court for generations to come.”
Republican strategists in the state who spoke to the Washington Examiner said the GOP’s rural turnout machine could make up any damage the party is facing in Maricopa County, home to Phoenix and its surrounding suburbs.
“Trump doesn’t necessarily have to win Maricopa this time around, and his coattails could help McSally,” said one Arizona political strategist who could not speak on the record due to his relationship with campaigns in the state. “Trump is probably more popular than she is.”
That same ABC News/Washington Post poll had President Trump narrowly leading his Democratic Party opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden, with 49% support. The former vice president’s average lead in Arizona is also narrower than Kelly’s, with Biden leading by 3.2 points with 48.3% support according to a RealClearPolitics average of polls.
Trump is campaigning hard in the state, making multiple trips there over the last several months. On Wednesday, one of the president’s sons, Eric Trump, held an “Evangelicals for Trump” rally in Glendale, Arizona.
“You see the enthusiasm here. Every event I’m at, whether it’s with the governor or alone, there’s hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of people, massive gatherings,” Eric Trump told the Washington Examiner on Wednesday. “Biden hasn’t been out here. That hasn’t been said. Biden hasn’t been to Arizona. Kamala Harris hasn’t been here either. To me, it’s a disrespectful thing.”
But the Trump campaign’s presence in the state can also prove a liability, depending on the president’s day-to-day behavior. When news broke that Cindy McCain, the widow of the late Sen. John McCain, endorsed Biden for president, the president said he was “never a fan of John. Cindy can have Sleepy Joe!”
That put McSally on the defensive in a state where the McCain family remains broadly popular and venerated. In a radio interview Wednesday, McSally said she has “the utmost respect for Cindy McCain.”
“Her decision to make her voice heard in this election I totally respect. Now we just disagree on the best choice to move the country forward,” she said. “But I also want to be clear: Nobody should be attacking Cindy McCain for her right in exercising her right to make her voice heard.”
