At the risk of stating the obvious: Tomorrow – South Carolina for the Republicans, Nevada for the Democrats – is an important day. On the Republican side. If McCain wins South Carolina: Thompson’s probably out. Huckabee presumably stays in and continues to get delegates, but it’s hard to see how he can be the nominee (if he can’t win South Carolina, how many other states can he carry?). McCain would have to be favored to win Florida, as former Thompson voters gravitate to him, and some deserting Rudy supporters as well … and with a victory in Florida, McCain would become the frontrunner going into Feb. 5. If McCain loses (but Thompson doesn’t win): Florida becomes an even, four-way race, whatever happens there all four probably then stay in for Feb. 5, the primaries that day split in multiple ways. … Who knows? If Thompson wins: A five-way race. On the Democratic side. If Obama wins Nevada: he then presumably wins South Carolina – and then he’s the frontrunner going into Feb. 5. If Clinton wins: she might still lose South Carolina – but it’s a more-or-less even race, with the Clinton Apparat still looking formidable. If Edwards wins: … No change? Or does it become a three-way race on the Democratic side?
