As the war in Ukraine nears the one-month mark, President Joe Biden continues balancing the need to help defend Ukraine without directly involving the U.S. military or further inflaming tensions with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Biden is working to make the invasion as costly as possible for Russia via sanctions but may face pressure to do more as disturbing news and images continue to emanate from Ukraine.
BIDEN UNDER PRESSURE TO DO MORE FOR UKRAINE
“He’s trying to strike a delicate balance between protecting Ukraine on one hand and avoiding a nuclear war on the other,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon.
There is broad bipartisan support for the United States helping Ukraine defend itself while rejecting Putin’s demands. An Economist/YouGov survey found that 7 out of 10 respondents favored sanctioning Russia and providing military and financial support to Ukraine, while just 20% want to send combat troops into the war.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke to Congress on Wednesday, asking for a no-fly zone and receiving a standing ovation. Survey respondents narrowly favored the idea, by 41% to 33%, but Biden has so far resisted.
Bannon says Biden’s foreign policy experience and “balanced personality” have helped him prepare for the situation, finding a sweet spot on Ukraine the same way he navigates partisan Washington politics.
Thus the president did not agree to the no-fly zone but instead approved an additional $800 million in Ukraine aid following the speech. Sanctions appear to be crippling the Russian economy, while nations including Finland and Sweden have considered joining NATO.
BIDEN DESERVES CREDIT FOR HOLDING THE NATO LINE
Critics counter that Biden should have acted more forcefully to deter the Russian invasion and has been too deferential to Putin’s threats.
“Why should the Russians be calling the shots here?” said Nile Gardiner, director of the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom at the conservative Heritage Foundation. “Why are you afraid to send [MiG-29] fighters to Ukraine? What message does that send to the world? It sends a message of weakness.”
The broad consensus regarding the war may erode as it drags on and if Russian forces continue to bombard civilian targets such as hospitals and theaters.
During a speech in Philadelphia, Biden highlighted his decision to send 12,000 U.S. troops to NATO countries near Russia and Ukraine in a strategic show of force to deter any future aggression against NATO member states, but he stressed that direct military involvement in the war is currently off the table.
“One movement. That’s why I’ve moved over 12,000 American forces along the borders with Russia, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania, etc.,” Biden said. “Granted, if we respond, it is World War III. But we have a sacred obligation on NATO territory, a sacred obligation: Article 5. And we will not, although we will not fight the Third World War in Ukraine. Putin’s war against Ukraine must never be a victory.”
Gardiner called the World War III comment “ridiculous,” saying the U.S. has already actively engaged on the side of Ukraine in the war and that sending fighter planes would not spark a wider confrontation.
White House press secretary Jen Psaki was pressed on that issue Friday, with a reporter asking if it amounted to semantics or hair-splitting to approve anti-tank Javelin missiles and anti-aircraft Stinger missiles while deciding against MiG-29s.
“These are all assessments made by our Defense Department,” said Psaki. “But I would tell you that as it relates to the transfer of fighter planes from the United States bases in Germany into contested Ukrainian airspace, where our military and intelligence community determine the benefits provided to Ukraine’s defense are low and the risks of escalation are high, that’s how we assess that.”
Biden has also been criticized for including Russia in nuclear negotiations with Iran even as he calls Putin a war criminal.
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“Biden has to look at the big picture here,” said Gardiner. “The reality is the Russians could be defeated on the ground in Ukraine and could be humiliated. And that’s a very good thing for the world if it happens. The U.S. should be doing everything it can to make sure it does.”
If Russian forces remain stalled in Ukraine while its economy tanks and Europe recommits to defense, Biden could emerge stronger for his administration’s handling of the situation.
“Putin underestimated the amount of resistance he’d get from Ukrainians and from the west,” said Bannon. “A lot more American troops are in Eastern Europe than there were three weeks ago. Russia has taken a major economic hit, closed its stock market, and the ruble has dropped in value. I think Biden has brought the U.S. and NATO allies closer together.”
