Democrats are optimistic that a 2018 election map that currently favors Senate Republicans will eventually be turned in their favor thanks to President Trump’s low approval ratings.
Current race ratings show a tough road ahead for Senate Democrats. There are seven Democrats in competitive seats and four of them in the “toss up” category.
But it’s still early, and Trump’s historically low approval rating could give Democrats a boost if it’s sustained into next year, say political experts.
“Even though President Trump won’t be on the ballot next year, he’ll cast a shadow over the midterm elections,” Nathan L. Gonzales, editor of the nonpartisan Inside Elections, told the Washington Examiner.
Trump’s approval rating, long a trouble spot for the president, has languished in the mid-thirties this summer, according to Gallup’s daily tracking, which is based on a three-day rolling average. On top of that, Trump’s recent comments about civil unrest in Charlottesville have angered and frustrated many GOP lawmakers who have already struggled to unite behind their president.
“Of course Republicans would rather have a popular president in the White House, but that looks like a luxury at this point,” Gonzales said. “If President Trump’s approval rating dips too far, more voters could decide to keep or send more Democrats to Washington to keep an eye on him.”
Midterm elections have historically favored the party opposite the president’s. Democrats are hoping the tradition will be magnified because of Trump.
“Some of the polling that has come out has been an early indication of this,” David Bergstein, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told the Washington Examiner. “That dynamic where voters say we want there to be a check and balance will be exacerbated this cycle because of what’s happening.”
Democrats are also eyeing with greater optimism the GOP’s only two vulnerable 2018 Senate seats.
Sens. Jeff Flake, of Arizona, and Dean Heller of Nevada, have both distanced themselves from Trump. Trump has now endorsed Flake’s primary challenger, Kelli Ward, while Heller has attracted a pro-Trump primary challenger, Danny Tarkanian, and that division could help Democrats.
“You are certainly seeing an energized Democratic base and a Republican base that is divided right now,” Bergstein said.
Trump’s poor approval rating improves an otherwise dismal outlook for 2018 Senate Democrats.
Incumbent Claire McCaskill of Missouri, for example, is seeking a third term in a state that has become increasingly conservative since her last victory in 2012. Voters there chose Trump by a margin of nearly 19 percentage points in 2016, but Trump’s low poll numbers could improve her situation.
Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, a Democrat running for a second term, must contend with an electorate who picked Trump by 36 percentage points over Hillary Clinton.
Cook Political Report Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy, who rates the seat a toss up, noted Heitkamp must run as a member of a Senate minority “doing everything in its power to oppose Trump and Senate Republicans. That’s the bad news.”
Two more Democrats, Sens. Joe Donnelly, of Indiana and Joe Manchin of West Virginia, are running in toss-up races where voters also backed Trump by significant margins, 19 points and 42 points, respectively.
Meanwhile, Republicans have been eyeing takeovers in Michigan and Wisconsin, where Trump won narrowly, as well as states that Clinton won by a relatively close margin, such as Virginia. But Trump’s sour approval ratings could make it much harder for the GOP to expand beyond the states he won by a very wide margin.
“President Trump’s job approval rating isn’t ideal for Republicans looking to make gains in the Senate, but he has a longer way to fall in West Virginia, Indiana, and Missouri than in Michigan or Virginia,” Gonzales said.
Trump’s presidency may have also hurt Republican efforts to recruit the best Senate candidates.
“Candidates are trying to decide about now if they’ll take the plunge,” University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato told the Washington Examiner. “Who would do it if they thought they would lose?”
In Missouri, Republicans had pinned their hopes on Rep. Ann Wagner, but she instead announced she’ll run for re-election to her 2nd District House seat. Republican Reps. Susan Brooks and Sean Duffy have declined to launch Senate bids in Indiana and Wisconsin.
Multi-candidate primaries are instead shaping up in several states that could weaken the GOP’s general election prospects and help Democrats.
“Republicans are failing to recruit top tier Senate challengers, and what that has created is a series of messy and divisive Senate primaries across the map,” Bergstein said.
But Trump’s bad numbers don’t necessarily signal a disaster next year. Duffy said ugly primaries sometimes have no impact on the general election. Trump’s approval rating may not matter, either, she said.
“There is one theory that such low ratings will depress Republican turn out, which would hurt GOP candidates in close races,” Duffy told the Washington Examiner. “The other is that many voters don’t really view Trump as a ‘real’ Republican, and thus his ratings will have little or impact on GOP candidates. I think the cycle needs to develop more and polling will begin to provide some clues.”
And in some states, Trump may be immune to the discouraging poll numbers.
West Virginia Republican Party Chairman Conrad Lucas said Republicans are in a position to defeat incumbent Joe Manchin, a Democrat and the state’s former governor, because Donald Trump remains very popular in the Mountain State and Manchin has opposed his agenda.
“I suspect that support will continue,” Lucas told the Washington Examiner. “Especially considering the uptick in the coal industry. President Trump has delivered on his promise to help the coal industry. A lot of support for Trump came because of those promises, and he delivered.”
