Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) is the favorite among betting markets, which show his chances of winning at almost 70 percentage points higher than Republican Herschel Walker.
Warnock and Walker are facing each other in the Georgia Senate runoff on Dec. 6. Record-breaking totals of early votes show more voters are likely to vote for Warnock during the runoff than when they voted early in the general election.
On average, Warnock’s favored to win with an 89.5% chance, compared to Walker’s 10.5%, according to data compiled by Election Betting Odds. The incumbent senator’s chances improved 1.4 percentage points from Saturday to Sunday.
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Betting sites PredictIt and Polymarket have placed Warnock’s odds at 89%, while Smarkets puts his odds even higher at 92.6% compared to Walker’s 8.3%.
Polls are leaning in Warnock’s favor, as well. A survey from Emerson College Polling/the Hill released on Thursday shows Warnock ahead of Walker by a narrow margin of 2 percentage points, with 49% of very likely voters stating they would back Warnock to 47% of very likely voters for Walker.
When asked who they expected to win the runoff, 57% of surveyed voters expected Warnock to win, over 43% expecting Walker. The survey was conducted from Nov. 28 to Nov. 30 with 888 very likely voters surveyed. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
Walker faces several challenges as he heads into the runoff. Despite being a favorable state for Republicans, Walker will no longer be on a ballot with strong Republican-held offices — Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp won his election handily against Democrat Stacey Abrams.
Democrats will also remain in control of the Senate, regardless of who wins the Georgia runoff, which could put some Republicans off voting on Dec. 6. With a Warnock win, the Democrats increase their majority to 51-49. With a Walker win, the Senate splits 50-50 with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tiebreaking vote.
A CNN survey found that 47% of voters backing Walker said the main factor in the Senate vote was out of opposition to Warnock, rather than support for Walker. However, 83% of voters backing Warnock are mainly motivated by support for the Democratic senator, which is a stronger motivation to vote.
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Republicans who show up for the presidential elections but not for midterm elections or runoffs are being targeted with ads and digital campaigns from conservative PACs, hoping to spur GOP voters into supporting Walker during the runoff.
Democrats are more likely to vote via mail-in ballots or early voting than Republicans. During the 2022 midterm elections, 45% of early voters were registered as Democrats, compared to 33.3% of early voters registering Republican.
