U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan delivered a written response to Russia’s recent demand that NATO agree never to allow another country to join the alliance and roll back security assistance with Eastern European allies, as American officials attempt to launch a confidential dialogue with Moscow.
“We’re not releasing the document publicly because we think that diplomacy has the best chance to see if we provide space for confidential talks,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters Wednesday. “We hope and expect that Russia will have the same view and will take our proposals seriously.”
That comportment attempts to revert to diplomatic normalcy, more than a month after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s team took the unusual step of publishing a “draft treaty” that proposed an unprecedented revision of NATO’s founding principles. Blinken rejected those public demands before and after a meeting with Lavrov last week in Geneva, but Russian officials have implied that they will launch a major new assault against Ukraine if they are not satisfied by the written response.
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“Depending on the contents of that reply, we and our colleagues from other agencies will draft our proposals addressed to President Vladimir Putin regarding further steps,” Lavrov told the Russian legislature earlier Wednesday, per state media. “We will not let them emasculate our initiative.”
Blinken and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reiterated, in separate appearances, that Russia cannot dictate whether any other country joins the alliance. But they underscored as well that both the United States and the broader NATO alliance agree that there are security issues that could be the subject of productive discussions.
“We are now reaching out to Russia once again to try to pursue a path of dialogue and try to find a political solution,” said Stoltenberg, whose team also submitted a written response to Russia. “The fact that we now are submitting a written document provides us with the opportunity to be more specific, to go into detail, and to be more concrete on everything from … arms control to transparency on military activities or cyberthreats and how to reduce the threat, for instance, [from] space-based weapons.”
Stoltenberg invited Russia to restore diplomatic contacts with NATO, which Moscow suspended in October after NATO expelled several “undeclared Russian intelligence officers” working in Brussels on a diplomatic visa. He said that NATO is “prepared to listen to Russia’s concerns and engage in a real conversation” about European security, including the crisis around Ukraine, but he also demanded a Russian military exit from the war-torn country.
“We face a critical moment for Euro-Atlantic security. Russia’s military build-up in and around Ukraine continues, with more than 100,000 troops in position, and more on the way, including significant deployments in Belarus,” Stoltenberg said. “Russia should also withdraw its forces from Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova, where they are deployed without these countries’ consent, and all parties should engage constructively in efforts to settle conflicts, including in the Normandy format.”
The Normandy Format is a forum for Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany to discuss the crisis in Ukraine. That quartet produced a pair of deals known as the Minsk agreements that Western European officials hoped would ameliorate the conflict, but the negotiation process was marred by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s pretense that Russia has not invaded Ukraine, and the most recent deal was “weighted heavily in Russia’s favor,” trans-Atlantic observers agree. The four leaders last met in 2019, but French President Emmanuel Macron convened a meeting of officials from each country on Wednesday to see if the bloc might find a new breakthrough.
“We see full implementation of the Minsk accords as an important way forward,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said Tuesday. “It’s also a fact that there is one country that has been the primary violator of the Minsk agreements, and that one country is Russia.”
Blinken touted the military aid provided to Ukraine by the United States and other NATO allies and reiterated that the United States and European countries will impose major economic punishments on Russia if Putin chooses to proceed with a renewed assault.
“We’ve developed a high-impact, quick-action response that would inflict significant costs on the Russian economy and financial system,” he said, before adding that Western allies are trying to buttress the Ukrainian economy against the harm caused by Russian threats. “Just as we’re bolstering Ukraine’s security, so, too, are we looking for how we can support its economy beyond the significant assistance we’re already providing.”
Still, Blinken insisted that the written proposal contains “ideas” that could offer real benefits to Russia, if Putin chooses to negotiate rather than fight.
“There’s no doubt in my mind that if Russia were to approach this seriously, and in a spirit of reciprocity, with the determination to enhance collective security for all of us, there are very positive things in this document that should be pursued,” he said. “We can’t make that decision for President Putin. Only he can make it.”
The confidentiality of the document, in theory, could give Russian officials some room to maneuver without making a public admission that they moderated their negotiating position, but Lavrov reiterated their ominous rhetoric in his appearance to the Russian legislature.
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“Should there be no constructive response, should the West continue its aggressive course, then, as [Putin has] said repeatedly, Moscow will take necessary response measures,” Lavrov said. “In any case, everyone must consider the security of Russia and its citizens an absolute priority, and it will be ensured under any circumstances.”