An old friend who’s worked at high levels of government and politics writes:
Assuming the validity of the NBC/WSJ poll for the Democrats, it seems that Clinton is in very bad shape.
Her average in the last four national polls is 40–down from high 50s in July, and people are now lining up with Sanders and Biden. Her numbers with independents have to be very poor.
She has endorsements, yes, but House and Senate Dems have to be nervous about her match ups with GOP candidates (all bad–even against Trump and Carson).
Worse yet, the Times and Post seem to be in a battle to see who produces the next scoop about her emails. That information has to be coming from high up in the Obama Administration and it suggests that there is more bad news to come.
Yesterday in a role reversal Bill is the wounded family member citing a vast GOP conspiracy against Hillary. This may harden support among ardent Hillary voters, but will unlikely do much more to calm electeds and donors than did his efforts to slow Obama’s momentum coming out of South Carolina in 2008 with references to Jesse Jackson.
There aren’t many cases of a strong front runner dropping like this (in contrast to people like Rick Perry who held brief leads). That it is happening to Hillary for a second time suggests very serious weakness.
Yes, McCain had the lead, dropped and then rose again, but his fall was more about early campaign spending and staffing mistakes and the early strength of his opponents (Giuliani, Romney, Thompson) than a rejection by party voters. Clinton’s fall is against the backdrop of extremely weak opposition, a seemingly well run and savvy campaign and nearly every endorsement available.
The conclusions:
Clinton’s chances to be nominated now fifty/fifty. Support now dropping outside of progressive bastions. Elites nervous. Typically when dominating front runners start to show vulnerability it is too late for their party to deny them the nomination. It isn’t too late to stop Clinton. The various moves her team has made–to scare out Biden; right the ship; apologize for “the confusion” emails have caused (versus the behavior itself), have not stabilized things. Pros know this and she is in real danger.
Biden should run. Clinton may be terminal and he is a more viable option than O’Malley or Sanders. Hesitation now will open the door for other later entrants.
Clinton, if nominated, will face very steep challenge to win independents in the general. A GOP nominee deemed qualified and not tainted with personal scandal or trust issues should have a solid advantage.
Republican “turmoil” may be a blessing. With so much uncertainty in the GOP race Democrats and the media have had to shotgun their attacks. Clearly, once someone does emerge they will be assailed, but the GOP situation makes Clinton the only “sure thing” out there, and hence an inviting target.
Her average in the last four national polls is 40–down from high 50s in July, and people are now lining up with Sanders and Biden. Her numbers with independents have to be very poor.
She has endorsements, yes, but House and Senate Dems have to be nervous about her match ups with GOP candidates (all bad–even against Trump and Carson).
Worse yet, the Times and Post seem to be in a battle to see who produces the next scoop about her emails. That information has to be coming from high up in the Obama Administration and it suggests that there is more bad news to come.
Yesterday in a role reversal Bill is the wounded family member citing a vast GOP conspiracy against Hillary. This may harden support among ardent Hillary voters, but will unlikely do much more to calm electeds and donors than did his efforts to slow Obama’s momentum coming out of South Carolina in 2008 with references to Jesse Jackson.
There aren’t many cases of a strong front runner dropping like this (in contrast to people like Rick Perry who held brief leads). That it is happening to Hillary for a second time suggests very serious weakness.
Yes, McCain had the lead, dropped and then rose again, but his fall was more about early campaign spending and staffing mistakes and the early strength of his opponents (Giuliani, Romney, Thompson) than a rejection by party voters. Clinton’s fall is against the backdrop of extremely weak opposition, a seemingly well run and savvy campaign and nearly every endorsement available.
The conclusions:
Clinton’s chances to be nominated now fifty/fifty. Support now dropping outside of progressive bastions. Elites nervous. Typically when dominating front runners start to show vulnerability it is too late for their party to deny them the nomination. It isn’t too late to stop Clinton. The various moves her team has made–to scare out Biden; right the ship; apologize for “the confusion” emails have caused (versus the behavior itself), have not stabilized things. Pros know this and she is in real danger.
Biden should run. Clinton may be terminal and he is a more viable option than O’Malley or Sanders. Hesitation now will open the door for other later entrants.
Clinton, if nominated, will face very steep challenge to win independents in the general. A GOP nominee deemed qualified and not tainted with personal scandal or trust issues should have a solid advantage.
Republican “turmoil” may be a blessing. With so much uncertainty in the GOP race Democrats and the media have had to shotgun their attacks. Clearly, once someone does emerge they will be assailed, but the GOP situation makes Clinton the only “sure thing” out there, and hence an inviting target.
