Democrats are in a strong position to expand on the House majority they won in 2018.
So says Inside Elections, which on Friday issued ratings changes about 29 House races, with all but two moving in the direction of House Democrats. That includes moving the rating of the coastal South Carolina seat held by first-term Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham from “Toss Up” to “Tilt Democratic.” Also moving from “Toss Up” to “Tilt Democratic” is a suburban Atlanta seat held for the past 10 years by retiring Republican Rep. Rob Woodall, who in 2018 won reelection by 433 votes out of more than 280,000 ballots cast.
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Democrats currently hold the House majority with 232 seats to Republicans’ 198, along with one Libertarian member and four vacancies. The favorable prognostication for House Democrats comes as President Trump consistently trails his Democratic rival, former Vice President Joe Biden, in polls.
?House ratings changes: @InsideElections has shifted 29 House races, 27 shifts in favor of Democrats, and 2 in favor of Republicans. Full list here: pic.twitter.com/mU8gKg92Tr
— Jacob Rubashkin (@JacobRubashkin) August 7, 2020
Democrats won the majority in 2018 for the first time in eight years. And many of the “majority-maker” members in the freshman class are looking strong in the Inside Elections rankings.
Notable shifts include Rep. Lauren Underwood’s exurban Chicago district from “Lean Democratic” to “Solid Democratic.” Underwood in 2018 ousted an eight-year Republican House member in the Illinois district. At 33, Underwood is the youngest black woman to serve in Congress.
Two Michigan seats held by first-term Democratic Reps. Haley Stevens and Elissa Slotkin, also shifted from “Likely Democratic” to “Solid Democratic.”
Stevens flipped her suburban Detroit district in 2018. This time around, Stevens is making economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic the central theme of her campaign. If she wins in November, she will be the first Democrat to ever be reelected to represent Michigan’s 11th Congressional District. She’s set to face attorney Eric Esshaki, who won the state’s GOP primary on Tuesday.
Slotkin, who represents a swing district around the state capital of Lansing, came under fire from Trump allies after she announced she would vote in favor of impeachment. She’s set to face prosecutor and former TV anchor Paul Junge for control of Michigan’s 8th District in the fall.
The two races that tilted in favor of Republicans include Rep. Rodney Davis of Illinois, whose district went from “Toss Up” to “Tilt Republican.” Florida Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s district also shifted from “Likely Democratic” to “Tilt Democratic.”
The report shows similarities to a new analysis that came out by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which also shifted multiple races in favor of Democrats after this week’s primaries in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, and Missouri.
