Bernard Cole, a professor at the National War College, spoke to Taiwanese reporters at the Brookings Institution on Thursday about the proposed sale of 3 diesel electric submarines, 12 refurbished PC-3 Orion aircraft, and $4.3 billion worth of PAC III Patriot missiles. The president authorized the sale in 2001 and the Pentagon’s asking $12 billion for the lot, but the deal has been held up by the Taiwanese parliament. Cole told reporters that it might be best if the deal didn’t go through. “None of these has been purchased and perhaps none of them should be,” said Cole. More pressing was the need for “mundane” things, such as munitions for artillery training, flight time for pilots, and fuel for surface vessels. Most interesting was Cole’s recommendation that Taiwan build its own submarines, rather than purchasing them from the United States. Writing in the November 28 issue of the WEEKLY STANDARD, David DeVoss examined the numerous problems, political and otherwise, that have plagued this deal from the start. Despite the fact that both the Executive and the DoD support the sale–the Pentagon will get a 15 percent cut–the U.S. Navy isn’t keen on seeing these subs built at American shipyards. From DeVoss:
The Europeans, who actually build these subs, won’t sell to Taiwan for fear of offending China. So Cole has proposed that the Taiwanese build their own fleet of subs. Says Cole, “Given the advanced state of Taiwan’s electronics industry and its shipbuilding industry, I find it hard to believe that over the course of eight to ten years that Taiwan cannot produce an operational submarine.” Cole’s comments are likely to anger a lot of folks in Washington, but, at $12 billion, this deal ought to greatly enhance Taiwan’s prospects in any confrontation with mainland China. Cole makes a strong case that the money could be better spent elsewhere. Still, Cole advised the Taiwanese to push through the sale of the P3-Cs. That Cole thought these aircraft were critical to Taiwan’s security is interesting given that, in promoting the sale of the same aircraft to Pakistan, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency claimed that the transfer would “not affect the basic military balance in the region.”
