Thousands of Russian troops have died in the less than two weeks since they invaded Ukraine, according to U.S. intelligence agencies. However, their limited presence and the fog of war make accurate estimates difficult.
Lt. Gen. Scott David Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told the House Intelligence Committee on Tuesday that his agency has seen estimates that between 2,000 and 4,000 Russian troops have died. He also noted they have “low confidence” in the assessment, gathered from “some intelligence sources, but also open source” data.
The number is much lower than the estimate from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which said Russia had lost 12,000 troops.
140,000 UKRAINIANS LIVING OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY RETURN TO FIGHT RUSSIA
The Pentagon has repeatedly declined to comment when asked about the casualty count in Ukraine, citing the difficulty of such a task in a foreign nation. Meanwhile, warring nations have incentives to exaggerate the numbers.
Ukrainian forces and civilians have fought back against the Russian invasion, preventing opposing forces from capturing the capital city of Kyiv. The Pentagon has said the Ukrainian resistance has surprised Russian military officials and has contributed to their inability to conquer the city to date.
William Burns, head of the CIA, warned the “next few weeks” will be “ugly” as Russian President Vladimir Putin “doubles down” and has “scant regard for civilian casualties, in which urban fighting can get even uglier.”
The CIA chief, who also testified in front of the committee, characterized Putin’s military plan as “profoundly flawed.”
“I fail to see, and our analysts fail to see, how he could sustain a puppet regime or a, you know, pro-Russian leadership that he tries to install in the face of what is massive opposition from the Ukrainian people,” Burns said.
That’s partly because the resolve of the Ukrainian people was strengthened by Putin’s 2014 invasion of Crimea, according to Burns.
“In many ways, it’s been Putin’s aggression going back to 2014 in Crimea that’s created the strong sense of Ukrainian nationhood and sovereignty that he faces today. So I fail to see how he can produce that kind of an end game,” he said. “Our analysts across the intelligence community are absolutely convinced of is the Ukrainians are going to kind of continue to resist fiercely and effectively.”
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Russian troops face more problems than just Ukrainian resistance, according to the Department of Defense.
“They still seem to be plagued by logistics and sustainment challenges,” a senior defense official told reporters on Tuesday. “They still are struggling to overcome fuel shortages, food shortages, and making sure that they can — in terms of ground troops — that they are able to arm themselves and defend themselves, and so they’re still working their way through that.”
