IF DEMOCRATS HOPE to retake the House of Representatives next week, they’re going to have to win seats like New Mexico’s 1st district. With an increasingly Hispanic population, and mounting woes for the national Republican party, the Albuquerque district is a prime pickup opportunity for the Democrats. But don’t expect incumbent Republican Heather Wilson to go down without a fight; the retired Air Force captain is a veteran campaigner used to doing political battle in her increasingly left-leaning district.
Wilson’s district is an odd one. Drawn up in 1968, a Republican has always held its Congressional seat. An influx of Hispanic residents has led the district down a more Democratic path in recent years, however. Registered Democrats now outnumber registered Republicans by 39,000, Al Gore beat George W. Bush 48 percent to 47 percent in 2000, and John Kerry widened that margin to 51 percent to 48 percent four years later. Despite increasingly daunting demographics, Wilson has continued to carry her district by relatively wide margins. In 2002 and 2004 she defeated state senator Richard Romero 55 percent to 45 percent and 54 percent to 46 percent, respectively.
Recent polling suggest that Wilson will not cruise to victory this time around–in fact, she will have trouble winning at all. After trailing narrowly for most of the campaign cycle, Wilson’s opponent, New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid, pulled even at the end of September and then opened a double-digit lead in October. While the most recent Albuquerque Journal poll shows that gap is closing, Madrid still leads Wilson 45 percent to 42 percent.
Wilson is feeling the heat this cycle for several reasons. For starters, the national mood is about as bad for a member of an incumbent party as it has been in recent years. Consider what Stuart Rothenberg, author of Rothenberg Political Report, had to say about the current situation in a recent Roll Call column: “The national political environment currently is worse than it was in 1994, when the Democrats lost 52 House seats, eight Senate seats, and 10 governorships.” Rothenberg goes on to point out that Bush’s approval rating is lower than Clinton’s in ’94, the “generic ballot” is 10 points worse for the GOP this cycle than it was for the Democrats 12 years ago, and that the Iraq war and numerous Republican House scandals are “far more challenging than anything Democratic Congressional candidates faced in 1994.”
These national problems have translated to Wilson’s district. Her nosedive in the polls coincided with the emergence of the Mark Foley’s scandal. The president is not particularly popular either; as Madrid spokeswoman Heather Brewer told me, “George Bush has a 36 to 39 percent approval rating in this district, and Heather Wilson is a lockstep supporter of George Bush. She is beholden to the Republican leadership.”
And then there’s the opposition. Madrid is a more impressive candidate than those Wilson has faced in the past. As the holder of a statewide elected office, Madrid has good name recognition (“90 percent,” according to Brewer) and is a seasoned politician. She’s also the best-funded of any of Wilson’s opponents: In addition to the $2.9 million that Madrid has herself raised, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has poured $1.9 million into the race–$440,000 of which will be spent in the last week.
The DCCC’s interest is not surprising, since New Mexico’s first district is perennially targeted for a Democratic takeover. “This is a race that has been on the top of our list for the entire cycle,” said DCCC spokeswoman Kate Bedingfield. “It’s certainly one we’ve paid a lot of attention to.”
Neither the Wilson campaign nor national Republicans are discouraged, however. With the polls showing the race narrowing, GOP operatives are confident that their ground game will make the difference on election day. “The race is neck and neck, coming down to the wire,” National Republican Campaign Committee spokesman Alex Burgos says. “Getting out the vote matters, and Heather Wilson’s going to get a nice push off of Madrid’s disastrous performance in the debate.”
The debate to which Burgos refers was last week, and while it wasn’t quite as bad as he makes it out to be, Madrid certainly made one serious mistake: When asked about the impropriety of taking money from special interest groups, Madrid replied that doing so was “only to give them access.” This miscue gave Wilson an opening to attack Madrid, as the New Mexico AG has been hounded by accusations of accepting money from a casino that had business in front of her office.
Wilson will have to take any advantage she can get. Veteran New Mexico pollster Brian Sanderoff told the Albuquerque Journal that he couldn’t remember the last time a Democratic challenger had led in a general election race in this district. A win here would be a huge boost to Democrats nationally, and, with its location so far West, could very easily be one of the last seats needed next Tuesday night to clinch a Democratic House of Representatives.
Sonny Bunch is assistant editor at THE WEEKLY STANDARD.
