Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District is Trump country, but like the red seat Democrats flipped in Pennsylvania two weeks ago, it’s ripe for an upset.
Currently held by Republican Rep. Andy Barr, the 6th District encompasses Lexington and stretches into surrounding rural communities. Barr has represented the district since 2012, when he capitalized on an anti-Obama atmosphere to defeat the Democratic incumbent. Like the 18th District of Pennsylvania, Kentucky’s 6th is home to more registered Democrats than Republicans, but they’ve voted red in most presidential elections and have re-elected Barr twice.
Democrats can win back the House majority in 2018 if they flip easy targets in the 25 GOP districts Hillary Clinton won. But Democrat Conor Lamb’s victory in Pennsylvania exploded that map, adding dozens of possible pick-ups. Though the district went for President Trump by 15 points in 2016, it has nearly all the elements that put Pennsylvania in play.
Barr holds the incumbent advantage, but the GOP knows he’s vulnerable. The National Republican Congressional Committee added Barr to its list of most endangered members in February — 10 months out from the general and seven months before Democrats even pick their candidate to oppose him.
The two frontrunners in the six-candidate Democratic primary have momentum on their side. Marine veteran Amy McGrath, whose first ad went viral last summer, is raking in small contributions, posing a formidable challenge to the establishment favorite, Lexington Mayor Jim Gray.
McGrath, the first female Marine to fly in an F/A-18 on a combat mission, tells voters she “didn’t serve a political party; I served a country.” Like Lamb, she’s openly skeptical of House Democratic leader and perennial GOP totem Nancy Pelosi, a sign McGrath is keyed in to what it takes to win over moderates in a red district.
“People are increasingly worried that the Democratic party is led by San Francisco and New York and there seems to be nothing in between as far as leadership,” she said in an interview.
Both McGrath and Gray could mount formidable challenges to Barr. But they have to battle each other and four other Democrats first, including state Sen. Reggie Thomas. A crowded primary poses risks: it could turn ugly and the best suited candidate to face Barr could lose.
“Man, these places are winnable,” said McGrath, “winnable with the right candidate.”
Gray’s campaign says he’s the one right to take on Barr — claiming the math is on their side. Gray, the first openly gay man elected mayor of Lexington, is popular.
When Gray ran against Sen. Rand Paul in 2016, he outperformed Hillary Clinton, and carried the district by 14,000 votes against Paul.
Gray’s campaign isn’t too worried about McGrath, who sees her pathway to victory through the red suburban and rural counties outside of Lexington. Focusing more on Barr, campaign manager Jamie Emmons stressed that the general election is “competitive.”
“As soon as the mayor got in, forecasters started changing it from solid Republican to lean Republican,” Emmons said.
Rep. John Yarmuth is the only Kentucky Democrat in Congress — a badge he’s carried since Barr won six years ago. Gray could change that.
“There have been several polls pitting [Barr] against [Gray] and [Gray’s] beaten him by double digits in all of them,” said Yarmuth.
In a trial heat, McGrath trails Barr by 48 percent to 44 percent, according to a survey of 401 likely voters conducted by the Garin-Hart-Yang research group. Gray takes a slight lead, beating Barr by 2 points.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has taken notice. “They are very interested in the 6th,” Yarmuth said.
Rep. Cheri Bustos, who runs Heartland engagement for the DCCC, sought out McGrath after she saw the veteran’s ad. Though quick to shower praise on the “tremendous candidate,” Bustos said she is going to wait and see how the primary unfolds.
But Democrats “absolutely” can flip that seat, she said, comparing it to Pennsylvania. “I’m seeing Conor Lambs all over this country, I’m seeing districts like Conor Lamb just won all over the country,” said Bustos, D-Ill.
Republicans brushed off the threat. The NRCC didn’t answer questions about Barr’s vulnerability, or why he was added to their incumbent protection program, instead pointing at the Democratic primary.
“There’s a brutal Democratic primary going on after the DCCC decided Amy McGrath was too liberal for the district and recruited another progressive in Jim Gray to run for the seat,” said NRCC spokesman Jesse Hunt.
Doug Heye, former head of communications for the RNC, acknowledged that Trump’s unpopularity points to a “tough year” for House Republicans.
But Barr “won a Democratic district that’s gotten more Republican,” said Heye. “He works his tail off.”
The Congressional Leadership Fund, a PAC backed by House Speaker Paul Ryan, opened a field office in Barr’s district, a sign that they’re taking the race seriously. And Vice President Mike Pence visited in March to push the Republican tax overhaul.
Barr isn’t the only Republican who could face a grueling general election. Pennsylvania made clear that the potential targets for Democrats are great in number.
From Richmond, Va., in the east, to Midwestern states like Illinois, Democrats are playing in districts once considered out of reach. The August special election in the 12th District of Ohio is one of those races. After Democrats’ victory in Pennsylvania, the non-partisan Sabato’s Crystal Ball changed the rating of the Trump +11 district from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”
“If you’re in a marginal Trump district or a Clinton district, you’re in deep, deep trouble,” said Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Va. “Be afraid.”
When you add up every special election, including those in the state legislatures, Connolly said, there’s on average a 16-point swing toward Democrats.
“Impose a 16 point swing on all races and you get a supermajority, that’s the implication of what’s happening,” Connolly said.
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, D-N.Y., cautioned his party against spreading itself too thin.
“It’s clearly an expanded map, but the law of gravity hasn’t been repealed,” Maloney said when asked about Kentucky’s 6th District and Ohio’s 12th District.
Instead, he’s focused on easier pickups in New York, New Jersey, Illinois and California, where a number of Republicans tried to fight their party’s tax bill and failed.
‘”This isn’t some magic trick, and it’s not some hocus pocus,” he said, “it’s the fundamental fact that the citizens of a lot of competitive districts are getting screwed by the policies of this Congress and they’ve figured it out.”
