President Joe Biden isn’t benefiting domestically from Russia’s invasion, despite an outpouring of public support for Ukraine from across the political spectrum.
One week of war in Ukraine has left Biden’s polling essentially unchanged. The latest poll from Morning Consult and Politico showed 53% of respondents disapproved of Biden’s job performance the week prior to Russia’s invasion (Feb. 19-21), with 45% approving. Following the invasion, Biden’s approval rating fell to 41%, while his disapproval rating rose to 56%.
Perception of Biden’s handling of the Ukrainian conflict has marginally improved, rising from 40% to 42%, but disapproval of his Ukraine policy held steady at 45%. Sixty-five percent of respondents said they had seen “a lot” of media coverage of the invasion, a figure that clocked in nearly 10 points higher than the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, but only 37% said they were familiar with the sanctions and other actions Biden and U.S. allies took to pressure Russia and Vladimir Putin.
BIDEN PLANS HOPEFUL STATE OF THE UNION AGAINST BACKDROP OF WAR, INFLATION, AND PESSIMISM
Democrats, Republicans, and independent voters all overwhelmingly agree that Putin should not be praised for his role in the conflict, but there is a prominent party split over the idea that former President Donald Trump could have prevented Putin’s invasion. Seventy-five percent of Republicans agreed with that sentiment, compared to 43% of independents and just 13% of Democrats.
Support for Ukraine has shifted significantly, especially among Republicans. A poll from Yahoo and YouGov showed that in early February, the public was essentially split on whether the U.S. should stay neutral or support Ukraine, but as of Monday, 57% want the United States to back Kyiv, compared to just 25% who still want the U.S. to stay neutral. Republican support for Ukraine jumped from 8% to 34% across that same time frame.
Since the end of the Cold War, foreign policy has only given a president a significant positive bounce twice. President George W. Bush’s approvals skyrocketed following the Sept. 11 attacks and subsequent launch of the war on terror, yet that sentiment quickly dissipated during his second term in office.
President George H.W. Bush similarly saw his poll numbers rise after the successful prosecution of the Persian Gulf War. But the bounce didn’t last, as the elder Bush was voted out of office the following year.
Biden will deliver his first State of the Union address to the nation Tuesday night. White House officials familiar with his prepared remarks say he will frame the Ukrainian conflict through the lens of protecting democracy and fighting autocracy.
Those officials say that Biden will also use Tuesday night’s speech to detail the administration’s efforts to combat rising prices. A majority still disapproves of Biden’s fiscal policy and stewardship of the economy, despite the historic GDP growth and labor market gains the country saw in 2021.
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A poll released Monday by the Republican National Committee showed 50% of respondents blaming the president directly for the current inflationary run, especially rising gas prices, and 54% say that Biden and Democrats in Congress are not focused on the issues that matter most to voters.
