Translating Primary Enthusiasm into General Election Results

Primary election enthusiasm doesn’t guarantee general election wins. A general election win requires hard work, organization, and an effective primary follow-up plan to keep excitement stoked–and even then there are no sure things. This piece by Donald Lambro in yesterday’s Washington Times sums it up well:

Lambro highlights some academic research that reveals no connection between primary turnout numbers and general election results. Back in March at Real Clear Politics, Jay Cost produced similar analysis demonstrating no correlation between primary turnout and electoral performance in November. It all comes down to execution–and the political pros know it. That’s why the Democrats and their outside interest group allies are putting so much emphasis on Obama’s 50-state registration drive. They know the key to victory in November lies with better-than-usual turnout among younger voters and African Americans. Without a heavy dose of increased participation among these groups, Obama has no chance of winning. If you want to read an interesting scenario of what increased youth and African-American turnout might mean for Obama in November, read this by blogger Poblano at Fivethirtyeight.com. Using 2004 turnout as a baseline and current polling data to distribute the hypothetical vote, he estimates, for example, that every 10 percent boost in African-American turnout will increase Obama’s popular vote by another 1 percent. One could quibble with the methodology. For example, his estimates don’t account for a counter-mobilization by the McCain forces. But it’s one of the few attempts I’ve seen that puts real numbers behind the prospects of translating the primary turnout surge into general election results. Poblano concludes with this observation: