The Washington area’s economy will see little improvement in 2013, but when it does start to pick up speed, it will be transformed into a leaner, tougher marketplace that depends less on the federal government and more on the private sector, according to a new analysis.

Congress’ inability to strike a more comprehensive deal on the “fiscal cliff” won’t be as bad as the massive tax increases and federal spending cuts that would have kicked in on Jan. 1 without the deal. But it’ll still take until 2015 for the local economy to rebound, according to new forecasts set to be released today from George Mason University’s Center for Regional Analysis.