A unilateral cease-fire announced Thursday by the government of Ashraf Ghani is the latest attempt by the Afghan president to lure the Taliban to the peace table with the promise of political recognition, and an end to more than 16 years of fighting.
The move was backed by the U.S. and is being talked up both in Washington and in Brussels, headquarters for the NATO-led Resolute Support mission. Taliban fighters have been resurgent since the U.S. withdrew most of its troops in 2014 under President Barack Obama.
The cease-fire begins Tuesday and will last a week, or longer if the Taliban honor it. So far, there has been no formal response from the group, which has many factions.
The offer of a cease-fire comes four months after Ghani unveiled a plan for negotiations with the Taliban that included political recognition and no pre-conditions.
It also came after up to 3,000 Afghan religious scholars, the Ulema, issued an Islamic decree, or fatwa, calling for a cessation of hostilities between the Afghan government and the Taliban.
At a meeting of NATO defense ministers Friday, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said Ghani was able to make the “very bold statement” because the NATO mission has put him in a position of strength.
“Afghan’s security forces continue to improve. All six Afghan corps are deployed throughout the country, demonstrating Afghan resolve, while the Afghan government pursues a stable and inclusive political order for its people, with NATO’s support,” Mattis said.
“The level of confidence today is sufficient for President Ghani to announce a temporary cease-fire for the end of Ramadan, offering the Taliban an opportunity to bring to an end this fighting.”
Last month, Gen. John Nicholson, the commander of U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan, said there have been some secret talks with elements of the Taliban that have grown tired of fighting.
But privately, Pentagon officials see no sign yet that the Taliban are ready for peace talks.
In fact, in the days before Ghani’s offer in February, the Taliban released an open letter in which they said they would prefer to negotiate with the U.S.
On a conference call with reporters Thursday, a senior State Department official dodged the question of whether the U.S. would negotiate directly with the Taliban, but took a “no news is good news” position in regard to the failure of the Taliban to jump at the offer.
“I think the fact that the Taliban has not yet rejected the offer — just as they have not formally rejected President Ghani’s offer of a settlement process provided back in February at the Kabul Process — indicates they may be prepared to entertain it and observe it,” said the official who asked not to be identified. “And we certainly hope that will be the case, but we’ll have to wait and see how they respond.”
At NATO headquarters Friday, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called the cease-fire offer “unprecedented.”
“I think that President Ghani has shown, both with the offer to peace talks, unconditional peace talks, and also the cease-fire, that he is really committed to peace and that he is bold in his way to approach peace and find a path to peace,” Stoltenberg told reporters. “It’s up to Taliban and they know that they have an opportunity now to seize the opportunity and to engage in real peace talks.”
Both Stoltenberg and Mattis have adopted the same talking point, that recent violence in Afghanistan is not a sign that things are going badly. Both point to Colombia, where in 2016 a negotiated agreement between the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC guerillas, ended a bloody 52-year war that killed an estimated 260,000 people.
“I recently met the president of Colombia, and he told me about the peace process there, where they actually were able to talk and fight at the same time,” Stoltenberg said.
“I think actually it is possible to also look to other peace processes where it has been possible to overcome years of conflict and then reach a negotiated peaceful solution.”
