The Roggio Report

THE BAGHDAD SECURITY Plan is now well into its third week of operations since the official announcement on February 14. Over the course of the last week, Baghdad has seen a significant reduction in violence. Deaths from sectarian fighting have dropped dramatically since December. “The number of bodies found this month in Baghdad–most shot and showing signs of torture–has dropped by nearly 50 percent to 494 as of Monday [February 27], compared with 954 in January,” reports the Associated Press. “The figure stood at 1,222 in December, according to figures compiled by The Associated Press.”

Over the past week, there have been two mass-casualty car bomb attacks in Baghdad and no major suicide attacks. A car bomb was detonated in a New Baghdad market (10 killed, 21 wounded). Another was detonated at a Sadr City used-car lot (10 killed, 17 wounded). Also, there was an assassination attempt on Adel Abdul Mahdi, one of Iraq’s two vice presidents. A bombing at the Ministry of Public Works killed 12 and wounded 42. Mahdi was lightly wounded. Overall, the last week has shown a significant reduction in violence relative to the flurry of suicide and car bombings that claimed hundreds at the beginning of the security operation.

The decrease in violence is encouraging, however the operation is in its opening phase and al Qaeda will work to find seams in the plan. The low number of suicide and car bomb attacks can be attributed to a combination of increased pressure, enhanced security checkpoints, and raids. The insurgency appears to have shifted operations to the provinces, and may be waiting out the U.S. surge or preparing for future operations. The drop in sectarian attacks can be attributed to a greater military presence inside Baghdad as well as desertions among the leadership of the Mahdi Army.

Iraqi and U.S. troops continue to move into the city, establishing checkpoints and building Joint Security Stations, where U.S. and Iraqi soldiers and police will patrol from inside the individual neighborhoods. Fifteen of the planned 32 Joint Security Stations are now open in Baghdad. The most recent station to open is located inside Sadr City, where elements of the 2nd Brigade of the 82 Airborne Division have set up shop. The 82nd, along with Iraqi soldiers and police and two companies of Strykers from the 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 2nd Infantry Division–1,150 troops total–have initiated a clearing operation in Sadr City. Sheikh Rahim al-Daraji, the mayor of Sadr City, has welcomed U.S. forces into the neighborhood, but is unhappy with the deployment of the 1st Iraqi Special Operations Forces. “We want you here sooner, rather than later,” Al Daraji said.

The 4th Brigade of the 1st Infantry Division (U.S.) has moved into Baghdad, however there is no indication where exactly it will be stationed. The remaining elements of the Kurdish-based 1st Brigade of the 2nd Iraqi Army Division from the Irbil/Sulmaniyah region are completing their movement into Baghdad. The 4th Brigade of the 2nd Iraqi Army Division from the Dohuk/Ninawa region is just beginning its movement into Baghdad. Eighteen Iraqi Army battalions are now in Baghdad, and the government “is training 7,500 Soldiers every five weeks as replacements for the units already deployed to Baghdad,” according to Lieutenant General Ray Odierno, the commanding general of the Multinational Corps in Iraq. While the first several battalions arriving in Baghdad were manned at as low as 55 percent, the final units arrived at 95 percent strength.

The have been significant changes in Iraqi Army policy for the Baghdad deployment, including adjustments to training and the liberal-leave policy. All Iraqi troops deploying to Baghdad are receiving two weeks training in urban operations at the Besmaya Range south of Baghdad. The leave policy, which often causes Iraqi combat battalions to be undermanned by as much as 30 percent, has been changed. Soldiers deployed to Baghdad will not be able to take leave during that 90-day period, after which the battalions will be rotated out of the city.

The Baghdad Security Plan is working to professionalize the Iraqi Army by teaching them to conduct long-term deployments. “They’re learning about how to deploy their forces,” said Lieutenant General Odierno. “They understand now what it takes to get them here at a certain amount of strength. And we’re seeing significant improvement in that as we continue to move forward,” he said.

Major operations and fighting are now occurring largely in the provinces. Anbar, Diyala, and Salahadin have seen the most action over the past week. Iraqi and U.S. forces appear to be pushing into Ramadi, the provincial capital and a stronghold for al Qaeda in Iraq. Heavy fighting has been reported in the Mulaab, a violent neighborhood in the city, and the 1st Battalion, 1st Brigade of the 1st Iraqi Army Division (1-1-1) has deployed downtown. The 1-1-1 is the most experienced battalion in the Iraqi Army and is typically deployed only where there will be fighting. The U.S. and Iraqi forces are joined by the Emergency Response Units, the tribal militias of the anti al Qaeda tribes known as the Anbar Salvation Council. Three Emergency Response Units have been deployed around Ramadi and five more are forming up.

In the village of Amiriya, near Fallujah, local Iraqi police fended off a coordinated, large scale assault by al Qaeda. The group was gunning for a leader of the Anbar Salvation Council, who was attending the funeral of a tribal leader killed in a suicide bombing in Habbaniyah the week prior. The Iraqi police, out-gunned, held their ground, called for backup from Iraqi Army, police, the Thuwra al Anbar–the tribal militia of the Anbar Salvation Council–and U.S. close air support. The combined forces proceeded to rout the Qaeda force. Over 80 were killed and 50 captured.

In Diyala, 18 off-duty Iraqi soldiers were kidnapped by al Qaeda in Iraq, then brutally murdered. “They were found in the streets of Baquba,” said the mayor of Khalis. “Their throats had been cut and their hands were bound.” The reason given was revenge for the alleged rape of a Sunni woman. Al Qaeda videotaped the murders and released the footage on the Internet.

In Salahadin province, a major operation netted 50 terrorists. Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, the leader of al-Qaeda’s political front organization–the Islamic State of Iraq–is rumored to have been captured, however this has not been confirmed by the U.S. military. The Iraqis have botched these announcements in the past, most recently by falsely reporting the death of Abu Musab al Masri, the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq.

While the security component of the operation is key to establishing the conditions for stabilizing Iraq, a political solution is essential. There is much distrust between the disenfranchised Sunnis and the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. A reconciliation program must be instituted to peel off the more moderate, nationalist elements of the insurgency from the radical Islamists fighting under the banner of al Qaeda. Prime Minister Maliki has announced he will reshuffle his cabinet within two weeks. The political block of self-exiled Muqtada al-Sadr may lose its six positions in the cabinet. The move is designed to “speed up reconciliation among Iraq’s warring communities,” Reuters reports. “We do not need to implement security measures except against those who reject the language of reconciliation and dialogue, those who insist on restoring the past,” Maliki said. “We present in our hand a green olive branch, and in the other hand we present the law.”

The Baghdad Security Plan and the greater Iraq security operation will take time to develop. The enemy always has the ability to adjust to new security realities, and al Qaeda has shown an ability to reconstitute and sow chaos. Last year, the government’s reconciliation attempts were sabotaged after al Qaeda destroyed the dome of Samarra’s Golden Mosque, unleashing waves of sectarian murders.

This operation is a marathon, not a sprint, but this week went relatively well for U.S. and Iraqi forces.

Bill Roggio writes on the war at billroggio.com. DJ Elliott and CJ Radin also contributed to this report. You can read daily updates on the war in Iraq from Bill Roggio at the WorldWide Standard.