There are two candidates who have repeatedly defied expectations over this campaign season. And while less attention has been paid to Bernie Sanders than to Donald Trump, many people believe that Sanders, like Trump, has energized an authentic political movement that could reshape American politics.
Those people are wrong. Sanders is not Trump, and Sanders’s success is not driven by a desire for the socialist political revolution he seeks. When you dig deeper into how the Democratic race has unfolded over the last few months, one thing becomes clear: Sanders isn’t catching up to Hillary Clinton because of populist anger, or a youth revolt, or even because Clinton is a subpar candidate. No. Sanders’ rise can be wholly attributed to one factor, and one factor alone: Larry David.
That’s right. A close reading of the Real Clear polling averages since the race began shows that nearly every major uptick in Sanders support aligns almost exactly with the Seinfeld creator’s hilarious appearances onSaturday Night Live playing the grumpy old Vermont socialist. To wit:
— The RCP average shows that, from mid-August to mid-October 2015, Bernie Sanders’ national support leveled off around 25 percent. And then what happened? Larry David made his debut as Sanders on SNL on October 17th. He appeared as Sanders again on November 7th. And by November 17th, Sanders’s national support reached a then-high 33.5 percent. Without question, this momentum would carry Sanders all the way to near-victory in Iowa in January.
— On February 6th, 2016, David and Sanders appeared together on Saturday Night Live. Also, in that same episode, David entered a bizarro world of meta-satire, playing Bernie Sanders as Larry David in a parody of his show Curb Your Enthusiasm (if you haven’t watched it, you should.) 3 days later, Bernie Sanders won New Hampshire by 22 points. Coincidence?
— Sanders, this very week, is giving Clinton another run for her money when nobody expected it. In Ohio, where last week Sanders trailed by 20 points in the RCP average, he has now pulled to within about 8 points. And in Illinois, where last week he trailed by an average of 39 points, he has pulled to within 2. Can this rapid shift in voter attitudes be attributed to anything other than David’s most recent appearance on SNL this past weekend? I would say, definitely, it cannot.
Sure, David wasn’t on SNL before the Michigan upset, and Sanders’ support reached 20 percent months before David ever impersonated him. But, hey, political science is complicated! Cut me some slack! All I know is, as the primary wages on, David is sure to make more appearances as Sanders on SNL, which could mean we’re headed for the Summer of Bernie.
