Maryland’s November slots referendum has Montgomery County residents between a rock and a hard place.
The liberal stronghold could be counted on in previous years to provide some of the strongest anti-slots sentiment in the state — in 2005, polling done by Bethesda’s Potomac Inc. said Montgomery County was the only jurisdiction where the majority of people opposed slots.
Patrick Gonzales, president of Gonzales Research and Marketing Strategies, said of Montgomery: “This has typically been the place where you find the largest opposition to slots.”
Times and tax rates, however, have changed.
State legislators, under the guidance of Gov. Martin O’Malley and facing a $1.7 billion budget gap, pushed the state income tax rate up for all residents making more than $150,000 a year. By all accounts, Montgomery residents will be the most affected. Locally, county leaders voted for what amounts to a 13 percent increase in property tax bills for the average homeowner.
Two polls done this year show the county shifting on slots. Steve Raabe, president of OpinionWorks, said his winter 2008 poll had 49 percent of Montgomery residents in favor of slots and 44 percent opposed. A May poll done by GarinHartYang research group, albeit for a pro-slots organization, said 61 percent of Marylanders in the D.C. media market were now backing slots.
Neil Bergsman, head of the Maryland Budget and Tax Policy Institute, said the state legislature’s fiscal plan depends on slot machine revenue for about one-third of the solution to the structural deficit of last year.
“The money that would come from slot machines is pre-spent,” Bergsman said.
The state is counting on $600 million a year from slots to fund education priorities. Without it, slots proponents say the state will have difficulty funding teacher pensions and cost-of-instruction differences for local school districts.
Maryland’s triple A bond rating was affirmed Friday, but all three bond rating agencies expressed concerns over the state’s finances if slots fail.
Even a die-hard slots opponent, Montgomery Del. Luiz Simmons, acknowledged an uphill battle. “When the governor says if you don’t pass this your taxes will go up, or I’ll cut services, you will persuade people on the fence,” Simmons said.
Bergsman, however, says not so fast.
“Montgomery voters face a crisis of conscience; for the most part they have progressive hearts and conservative pocketbooks,” he said. “But it remains to be seen. I have strong faith in the hearts of Montgomery County citizens.”
