Gallup on Swing Voters

John McCain and Barack Obama face different challenges when it comes to winning swing voters – a fickle, and, as the election nears, shrinking group of Americans. Jeffrey Jones, one of the Gallup editors, wrote last week that the number of swing voters is declining – an expected pattern now that both parties have finished their presidential nominating conventions.

The percentage of voters who are “up for grabs” has declined sharply in the past week, from 30% to 21%, according to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll.

The survey also asked these swing voters about reasons for their indecision. Senator McCain’s weakness with this group centers on his economic platform (among swing voters, 56% say Obama is superior on the economy, compared to 19% who pick McCain). So the internals from the latest Gallup poll showing a sharp improvement for McCain on the issue of the economy are welcome news generally, but specifically among the critical swing voter group. Conversely, Senator Obama’s weakness with many of these undecided Americans is his lack of national security and foreign policy background. However, Jones observes:

One reason swing voters have yet to commit to a candidate is that they still appear to harbor some doubts about how the candidates would perform on issues that are not obvious areas of strength. For example, only 19% of swing voters say McCain would do a better job than Obama on the economy, much lower than the 42% of committed voters who view McCain as better on economic matters. But that does not mean Obama has convinced swing voters he is the superior candidate on the economy, because roughly as many swing voters (56%) as committed voters (54%) view Obama as better on this issue.

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