Sioux City, Iowa
“I believe this night is historic,” Ted Cruz pronounced, more than once.
More than an hour and a half after Cruz’s campaign rally Saturday night began, the Texas senator was celebrating the endorsement he’d received from a group called the Tea Party Patriots. In the preceding 90 minutes, the audience at Western Iowa Tech Community College was graced with appearances from Glenn Beck and Phil Robertson of Duck Dynasty. Donald Trump, whom Cruz had challenged to a one-on-one debate after the Iowa frontrunner bailed on Thursday’s Fox News debate, was nowhere to be seen.
“I recognize that those who are ducking debates might be nervous about being near the Robertson clan,” Cruz cracked. Several members of the crowd blew their complimentary duck calls.
Is this how Cruz imagined he would be heading into the Iowa caucuses? Surely not. The Republican is fighting for his political life in the Hawkeye State. Hours earlier, the Des Moines Register released its definitive Iowa Poll. A previous Register poll, released in December, gave Cruz a 10-point lead over Trump. But now, days before the caucuses, the Register confirmed what others have found: Cruz is now trailing Trump, not by a lot (5 points, 23 percent to Trump’s 28 percent), but not by a little, either.
Cruz has spent the last several days defending himself on all sides, from Trump and Marco Rubio to the pro-ethanol lobby and GOP governor Terry Branstad. He’s found himself looking for support in small, rural corners of the state that ought to be already solidly in his corner. He’s been forced to defend a shady last-minute get-out-the-vote effort. And in the Iowa Poll, he’s seen his favorability dip by 11 points since the beginning of January.
So Cruz’s final pitch in Sioux City, aided by endorsements celebrity and otherwise, didn’t seem like the culmination of a campaign that aimed to consolidate the conservative vote. It felt more like a rag-tag effort, patchworked together to stave off an out-of-control revolution that threatens the Republican party, or at least Cruz’s role as its leading conservative firebrand.
“Rag-tag” might very well describe what propelled the past two Republican victors in Iowa, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee, and it was reasonable to expect Cruz to expand on what they built. After all, Santorum and Huckabee were relatively unknown when they won Iowa. Huckabee was a small-state governor with a hillbilly name, and in Santorum’s last race in 2006, he lost his reelection bid by 18 points. Their victories here were surprising because they were genuine underdogs.
Cruz, on the other hand, came into the presidential race a nationally recognized conservative rock star. He had a sterling reputation, not in Washington but among the GOP base that has nearly as much animus toward Republican leaders in Congress as they do toward Democrats. He’d earned a reservoir of goodwill from talk-radio hosts like Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh for his legislative battles to defund Obamacare and prevent raising the debt limit. Cruz may be anti-establishment, but he’s also become a conservative institution.
And there’s little doubt Cruz worked harder than just about anyone. He fits six campaign events in a day when most candidates might allow three. He’s built a strong organization that unites evangelicals, homeschoolers, and libertarians. In Iowa, the Cruz campaign can point to more than 12,000 volunteers, more than 1,500 precinct captains, more than 20,000 phone calls and 2,000 doors knocked on every day. By the time Iowans caucus on February 1, Cruz will be able to say he’s campaigned in all 99 counties, with county chairs of his campaign in each one.
If all that can’t seal the deal, what can? Cruz ended his rally with the same request he’s repeated throughout Iowa over the past few days. “If everyone here brings nine people, we will win the caucuses and we will win the nomination and we will the general election and beat Hillary Clinton and turn this country around!” he said, his voice, with each phrase, rising in volume and intensity.
