Des Moines
In the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll, Donald Trump leads the field at 28 percent with Ted Cruz in second place at 23 percent and Marco Rubio in third at 15 percent.
What’s remarkable is that Trump is leading despite the fact that he’s a deeply polarizing figure among Republicans: Nearly half of likely caucusgoers (47 percent) view him unfavorably, while 50 percent view him favorably. Trump’s +3 favorability rating is well behind the favorability ratings of Ben Carson (+50), Marco Rubio (+49), and Ted Cruz (+37). Polling analysts note this is highly unusual:
Rare for a guy with breakeven favorability ratings WITHIN HIS OWN PARTY to win Iowa. But looks like Trump can do it.https://t.co/hdbP4InehU
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) January 31, 2016
This is flat out insane: Trump’s net favorability rating is just +3 among Republicans. And yet, he leads. You either love em or hate em.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) January 31, 2016
“It makes you scratch your head,” J. Ann Selzer, the pollster who conducted the Des Moines Register survey, tells me. “The field is so big–that’s part of it. You’ve got more popular candidates not getting the first-place vote.”
The poll found that Trump would lose a two-man race against Cruz by 18 points–53 percent to 35 percent. Close to a majority of Iowa caucusgoers (48 percent) have become less comfortable with Trump winning the GOP nomination. And the largest percentage of caucusgoers (37 percent) said the nomination of Trump would be “not OK” with them. (Just 20 percent said the same of Cruz and 15 percent said the same of Rubio.)
“There’s this group that really wants Trump,” says Selzer. “Seventy-one percent of Trump’s supporters say they’re locked in. That’s the most intense of anybody.” And that intensity is enough to put Trump in first place in a divided field.
It’s entirely possible that Cruz could still pull off an upset in Iowa, but if the Des Moines Register poll is exactly right, Trump will walk away with 8 delegates, Cruz with 6 delegates, and Rubio with 4 delegates. They’ll all be a long way from the 1,236 delegates needed to win the nomination.
The prize in early states like Iowa, of course, has always been momentum. Will voters fall in line if Trump racks up first-place finishes in Iowa and other early states? Will Trump get less of a boost because he’s already receiving saturation media coverage? Will voters coalesce behind another candidate by the time states may begin awarding delegates on a winner-take-all basis on March 15? The answers to those questions will determine the GOP presidential nomination.
