Experts: Real estate growth could not be sustained forever

Published July 19, 2006 4:00am ET



Hot or cold? It?s a debate that housing industry experts have been discussing for months.

And those experts are saying that while area home prices continue to rise, other figures indicate that the current housing market is more in line with what was seen earlier this decade ? further evidence that the market has returned to normal.

In June, 3,909 houses sold in the Baltimore area, which includes Baltimore City and Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Harford and Howard counties, marking a 22.56 percent decline compared with the 5,048 houses sold in June 2005. However, in June 2001, 3,812 area homes were sold, according to data compiled by Metropolitan Regional Information Systems Inc.

“I wouldn?t call it a cold market ? it has cooled off a little bit,” said Thomas Shaner, executive director of the Maryland Association of Mortgage Brokers. “Today?s market is more of a realistic market that we would see on a ongoing basis. Nothing can keep going up the way the housing market was, but over the long run, it will go up again.”

Aside from the number of homes sold in the area, houses are also staying on the market longer than during back-to-back record years in 2003, 2004 and 2005.

In June, homes stayed on the market an average of 51 days, compared with 38 days for the same time period in 2005. In June 2001, right before the market heated up, homes took an average of 72 days to sell.

“It?s returning to a more stable market,” said Bobbie Herbert, a real estate agent with RE/MAX 100. “The market had escalated so much in the past three years and in the seller?s mind the values are still going up, they haven?t realized it?s stopped.”

But while some in the industry say much of the area is stabilizing, Tracy Gosson, executive director of Live Baltimore Home Center, said prices in Baltimore City will continue to rise bringing it more in line with other areas of the state.

In June, the average sale price for a home in Baltimore City rose by almost 4 percent to $180,176.

In June 2001, average sale prices were $95,173.

“The Baltimore City housing market is much hotter than anywhere else,” she said. “But it?s still the cheapest game in town because we?re in a constant game of catch up.”

By the numbers

Anne Arundel County

Number of homes sold

» 2006: 750

» 2005: 1,093

» 2001: 843

Baltimore County

Number of homes sold

» 2006: 1,097

» 2005: 1,320

» 2001: 1,078

Baltimore City

Number of homes sold

» 2006: 1,017

» 2005: 1,365

» 2001: 755

Carroll County

Number of homes sold

» 2006: 246

» 2005: 279

» 2001: 255

Harford County

Number of homes sold

» 2006: 374

» 2005: 445

» 2001: 377

Howard County

Number of homes sold

» 2006: 425

» 2005: 546

» 2001: 504

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems

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