Democrat Amy Kennedy is her family’s last hope for a toehold in the next Congress after cousin-in-law Rep. Joe Kennedy III’s defeat this week in his Massachusetts Senate primary.
Amy Kennedy, former Rhode Island Rep. Patrick Kennedy’s partner and the late Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy’s daughter-in-law, is running to become the first Camelot wife to hold elected office.
The twice-married mother of five and history teacher-turned-mental health advocate is vying for New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District against turncoat Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew. Van Drew first won the GOP-leaning district anchored by Atlantic City in 2018 by 7.7 percentage points as a Democrat before deserting the party last year over President Trump’s impeachment.
New Jersey-based Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray told the Washington Examiner the Nov. 3 contest was competitive.
“The only polls we have seen have all been Dem-sponsored, so take that with a grain of salt, but they all show a tight race,” Murray said.
Results from surveys conducted since Kennedy’s primary victory in July find her leading by 5 points to Van Drew being in front by 3 points.
The Brookings Institution’s Darrell West, the author of the 2000 book, Patrick Kennedy: The Rise to Power, agreed the rivals were evenly matched, yet he suspected Van Drew’s defection would complicate matters for him. Van Drew spoke during prime time ahead of Trump’s televised Republican National Convention nomination acceptance speech last Thursday.
“It is hard to win after you have switched parties. The party you left is upset because they dislike Trump, while the party you embrace doesn’t fully support you because they remember you quite recently belonged to the other party,” West said.
Van Drew had $1 million more in the bank than Kennedy on June 30, a clear advantage for him. What’s less certain are the run-on effects of having Trump at the top of the ticket in the fall.
Former President Barack Obama carried the 2nd District by 8 points in both 2008 and 2012 before Trump clinched it by 4.6 points in 2016. This cycle, Trump’s statistically tied with 2020 Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, 47% to 46%, according to an internal Kennedy poll.
“Trump is not as popular in the North as the South, so Kennedy is turning her opponent into a Siamese twin with Trump. She is running ads showing Van Drew with Trump and telling voters they should fire Van Drew,” West said.
A Kennedy spokesperson didn’t respond to multiple requests for comment by publication time.
But for New Jersey Republican strategist Jeanette Hoffman, Kennedy was tainted by two brands: that of national Democrats, a party that’s “gone so far to the left,” and her family.
Hoffman argued Van Drew’s record as a local and state lawmaker not “in lockstep with any one party” resonated with the 2nd District. She described the district as being “very rural” in parts and said it was home to constituents who value the Second Amendment, among other conservative issues, over Kennedy’s top two priorities of mental health and the environment.
Most Democrats in the district were “blue collar” and don’t identify “with this party of AOC and ‘the Squad,'” Hoffman explained, referring to New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and a handful of other minority freshman congresswomen. Instead, Hoffman predicted the No. 1 voting concern would be the economy.
While she conceded Kennedy’s last name helped her with recognition, Hoffman believed political dynasties weren’t “what they used to be,” citing the Clintons and the Bushes.
“Of course there’s a fondness for JFK, but as the years go by, it becomes less and less important,” she said of former President John F. Kennedy. “President Trump’s election in 2016 is a good example. People are looking for outsiders, and they’re tired of the establishment.”
Amy Kennedy may find it hard to glean lessons from her cousin-in-law’s loss, given the different dynamics at play. Joe Kennedy’s Senate aspirations, for instance, were dashed after Ocasio-Cortez and others vouched for incumbent Sen. Ed Markey’s liberal credentials, exposing Joe to attacks on his candidacy and for acting entitled.
Amy Kennedy, in comparison, wasn’t endorsed by New Jersey Democratic heavyweights, other than Gov. Phil Murphy, and was backed more by the party’s left.
Hoffman, though, still drew parallels between the pair.
“They think they can jump into congressional races having nothing but their names to run on, and I think they’re both going to learn the lesson that that’s not enough in 2020, especially in this tumultuous environment,” she said.
