Republican candidates have been softening their rhetoric around abortion as the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade becomes a major issue for voters in the midterm elections.
Democrats have leaned into their messaging on abortion, spending more than $30 million so far on ads calling Republicans “too extreme” and warning the GOP will strip away abortion rights. Democrats felt vindicated in their strategy last week after Pat Ryan won a special election in New York’s 19th Congressional District campaigning on abortion, and earlier this month, an anti-abortion ballot initiative in Kansas failed in the solidly Republican state.
The early successes for Democrats have forced Republicans to reconsider how to respond to the attacks, with GOP candidates in competitive races downplaying or clarifying their views on abortion and insisting that it’s Democrats who are out-of-step with voters.
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Blake Masters, Arizona’s Republican nominee for Senate who is trying to unseat Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), removed the line “I am 100% pro-life” from his campaign website, according to NBC News, and has gone on the offensive against Kelly in a new ad.
“Most people support commonsense regulation around abortion. But Mark Kelly votes for the most extreme abortion laws in the world,” Masters says in the ad. “We’re talking no limits, up until birth. Think about how crazy that is.”
The Republican nominee for Senate in Washington state, Tiffany Smiley, launched an ad accusing her Democratic opponent of trying to scare voters about her position on abortion.
“Patty Murray has spent millions to paint me as an extremist,” Smiley says in the 30-second spot. “I’m pro-life, but I oppose a federal abortion ban.”
Adam Laxalt, the GOP nominee for Senate in Nevada, took a similar approach, reiterating his opposition to abortion in an Aug. 2 op-ed while calling the charge that he would support a federal abortion ban a “falsehood.” He assured voters that “Nevada is and will remain a pro-choice state” despite the Dobbs ruling.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), speaking with CBS Miami on Thursday, reiterated his belief that all abortions are the taking of a human life, but he also acknowledged that his stance isn’t the “majority position.” He went on to say he would back less restrictive abortion bans if that’s what can pass and said the issue is best left to the states when asked about a federal ban. Rubio is in a close race with Rep. Val Demings (D-FL), who has a large war chest heading into November.
“I believe that abortion is the killing of an unborn human being and that all human beings are entitled to the dignity and protection of life,” the Florida senator said. “That said, I’ve also said that I will support bills that have exceptions — I have in the past, and I will in the future. I will support any bill that saves lives.”
“I do not believe that the dignity and the worth of human life is tied to the circumstances of their conception. But I recognize that that’s not a majority position.” – @marcorubio on why he personally opposes abortion in all cases including rape and incest.@CBSMiami pic.twitter.com/S1h9l3Y5Vw
— Jim DeFede (@DeFede) August 26, 2022
These examples suggest Republicans are concerned the Dobbs decision has made abortion a stumbling block, especially in swing states, and could spell trouble in the midterm elections.
“When Kansans went to the polls earlier this month and delivered a commanding victory for abortion rights in a deeply red state, it sent shockwaves across the country. Now, many Republicans are scrambling to change or soften their stance on abortion, especially in light of so many GOP-run legislatures moving forward with all-out bans on abortion, some even in the case of rape or incest,” Democratic strategist Kevin Walling told the Washington Examiner, adding, “With GOP leaders like Sen. Mitch McConnell and former Vice President Mike Pence suggesting that Republicans pursue a national abortion ban should they return to power in November, that is certainly giving more independent and moderate voters pause in the final two months of the midterm elections.”
Pence has called for a national ban, while Senate Minority Leader McConnell said before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade that such a ban was “possible.”
By recalibrating their message, Republicans are hoping to align with more voters who are caught in the middle and step away from the binary that has defined the party positions, GOP strategist Doug Heye said.
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“Both parties have become more extreme on this issue, which is not where voters are,” Heye told the Washington Examiner. “Most voters, they don’t like abortion, but they think Roe should stand and there should be exemptions and limitations. It gets very complicated, but in light of the Dobbs decision, we’ve obviously seen an uptick in Democratic voter enthusiasm. We’ve seen a lot of women, first-time voter registrants, and that has Republicans rightly concerned.”
Republicans were initially expected to take back the House by a wide margin and had favorable odds in the Senate, but the GOP’s prospects have worsened as 2022 has progressed. McConnell this month expressed doubt that the GOP will take the Senate, and a recent CBS News projection reduced the number of seats that the Republicans may win in the House from 230 in July to 226. The party needs 218 votes to control the lower chamber.
