“Fed Puts Interest-Rate Hikes in Play,” led the Wall Street Journal’s page one, following Federal Reserve Board chair Janet Yellen’s latest press conference. “Don’t bet on June for Federal Reserve hike,” countered page one of the business section of USA Today. To which I would add a headline for this piece, “It doesn’t really matter which one is right,” were I consulted by our esteemed headline writers.

Start with the competing interpretations of what Yellen had to say. She and her monetary policymaking colleagues dropped the word “patient” from the description of their plans for raising interest rates, while adding that they have no intention of being “impatient”. Since the economy seems to be slowing a bit, and the unemployment rate that might trigger unacceptable inflation is lower than was previously thought, Yellen feels she can be, er, patient. No rate rise at the April meeting. Fed watchers are left to fill in the blank in the sentence, “The Fed will begin raising interest rates in —”. Or sooner, if the data warrant. Or perhaps later, if the Fed’s economists’ reading of the entrails of some goose, better known as its economic model, so indicates. Markets reacted by lowering the probability of an increase, once deemed virtually a sure thing in June (but not in this space), to less than 50-50 in September. If that reading is correct, and rates remain on hold in September, the chance of an increase in the final quarter is slight. Holiday sales are counted on by retailers to turn red ink to black, and a rate increase might result in a growth-stifling sheathing of credit cards.