Donald Trump has made several contradictory statements about raising the federal minimum wage, leaving conservatives and liberals alike wondering where he really stands.
Nevertheless, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee has been consistent on several points relating to the issue. Together, they indicate that he may actually be willing to strike a deal, much like Republican leaders in the 1980s and ’90s.
What Trump has repeatedly said is that a big increase like the $15-an-hour rate, more than double the current federal minimum of $7.25, pushed by many liberal groups would be a bad idea and expanding the overall economy would be better. More recently, he has said that he is open to a deal with Congress for a more modest hike.
Stephen Miller, his senior policy adviser, told the Washington Examiner that “the ideal solution is for the states to choose the wage floor that makes the most sense for their unique economic circumstances.”
The advantage of that position, of course, is that it removes a president from the issue entirely. But note that Miller said that was “the ideal solution” and did not rule out a less-than-ideal one.
Whether straddling the issue that way will help Trump in the election – assuming he doesn’t shift again – is not clear. It’s too little for liberal groups but won’t endear him to conservatives and business groups, who believe that any increase hurts the economy. House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., has cited a Congressional Budget Office report that raising the rate to $10.10 would cost a half-million jobs.
But Trump has built his campaign on appealing to disaffected blue-collar voters who don’t fit in either partisan camp. His minimum wage stance is clearly part of that effort.
Miller said the wage issue was linked to Trump’s positions on trade and immigration. In all three cases, he wants to prevent any foreign competition. The problem with setting a high minimum wage is that raising labor costs makes immigrant labor and offshoring more attractive to U.S. businesses.
“Clinton’s policy will ratchet up the pain, especially for workers in our inner cities. Instead of being hired into these positions, workers in our hardest-hit communities will be passed over for less expensive labor from overseas,” Miller said. Clinton is backing an increase to $12 and has even said she would sign a $15 one.
A major factor here is how radically the push for a $15 minimum has shifted the debate. Prior to 2007, the largest year-to-year increase in the federal rate was a 50-cent hike in 1996. While they have grumbled, businesses have been able to adapt to such modest increases.
An increase to $15, even done incrementally, would create unprecedented burdens on businesses, pushing the economy into unknown territory. Just a few years ago, most liberals were hesitant to call for anything more than a raise of a few dollars. Most of the questions directed to candidates have related to a $15 level, leaving anything less than that off the table.
Trump, unlike most other candidates, has had first-hand experience negotiating worker wages, having done it numerous times in his business career. At times, he has even boasted of his good relations with unions. (Some labor leaders have had kind words for him, but most oppose his candidacy.)
Asked by Fox News’ Neil Cavuto during a November GOP debate if he was “sympathetic” to the calls for a $15 minimum rate, Trump said he was not.
“I can’t be, Neil. The reason I can’t be is that we are a country that is being beaten on every front: economically, militarily … Taxes [are] too high. Wages [are] too high. We’re not going to be able to compete against the world. I hate to say it, but we have to leave it where it is. People have to go out and work really hard and get into to that upper stratum. But we cannot do this if we are going to compete with the rest of the world. We just can’t do it.”
Prodded again by Cavuto, Trump said, “I would not raise the minimum.”
That appeared to settle the issue, but in late December, Trump angrily shot back at Democratic candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders for saying in a CBS interview that the Republican “has said that he thinks wages in America are too high.” Trump tweeted that that was a “lie.”
“The middle class has worked so hard, are not getting the kind of jobs that they have long dreamed of — and no effective raise in years. BAD,” Trump said in a follow-up tweet.
He then added, “Wages in are country are too low, good jobs are too few, and people have lost faith in our leaders. We need smart and strong leadership now!”
In a May interview, CNN’s Wolf Blitzer tried to get him to clarify his stance, noting that “you cannot live on $7.25 an hour.” Trump, notably, did not disagree.
“I’m actually looking at that. I’m very different from most Republicans. I mean, you have to have something you can live on,” Trump said. He then added, “Now, if you play around too much with the lower level, you are not going to be competitive.”
Pressed by Blitzer on what the rate ought to be, Trump didn’t directly respond but said that he was “open to doing something with it.” He then reiterated that what he really wanted was jobs that paid “much more” than $15.
Those comments have prompted Trump’s critics on both sides to accuse him, not unfairly, of flip-flopping on the issue. He has clearly backed away from his November position that he would not raise the federal rate at all.
“I don’t think anyone here is qualified to interpret what Trump would really do,” said a bewildered official for a major business trade association, who requested anonymity.
