The feud between Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and former President Donald Trump has the potential to extend beyond blows exchanged through statements and speeches.
With the 2022 election cycle getting into gear and the future of the Republican Party in limbo, the tension between the two GOP titans may extend to battles between McConnell-backed and Trump-backed Senate primary candidates.
After the Senate acquitted Trump of the “incitement of insurrection,” McConnell said that Trump “is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of” the Jan. 6 Capitol breach. The former president responded with a scathing statement, calling the Senate minority leader a “dour, sullen, and unsmiling political hack.”
Trump has long expressed interest in supporting primary challenges to Republicans who get on his bad side, and his allies have already started flexing their primary muscles. Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., called into a Wyoming rally protesting No. 3 House Republican Rep. Liz Cheney after she voted to impeach the president.
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It is unclear how serious Trump and his allies are about getting involved in Republican primary battles. In the past, Trump has endorsed successful candidates, mostly in open primary races when he had a grudge against another candidate — such as when he endorsed now-Sen. Tommy Tuberville of Alabama rather than his former Attorney General Jeff Sessions.
If Trump follows through, there are some clear targets:
South Dakota — Primary challenge to Republican Sen. John Thune
Thune, who as Senate minority whip is the second-ranking Senate Republican, has been an explicit target of Trump.
Thune was on the receiving end of Trump’s wrath after he said in December that Trump’s attempts to challenge the legitimacy of President Biden’s election would “go down like a shot dog.”
Trump responded in a tweet: “RINO John Thune, ‘Mitch’s boy’, should just let it play out. South Dakota doesn’t like weakness. He will be primaried in 2022, political career over!!!”
The scuffle prompted South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, a rising star in the party, to state that she would not challenge Thune in 2022.
Alaska — Primary challenge to Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski
Last June, in the midst of the Black Lives Matter protests sweeping the country, Murkowski expressed her agreement with comments from former Defense Secretary Gen. James Mattis criticizing Trump’s use of the military to quell violent protests. Mattis said that Trump “tries to divide us”; Murkowski said that “Mattis’ words were true, and honest, and necessary, and overdue,” adding that she was struggling over whether to support Trump in 2020.
Trump responded in a thread of tweets, pledging to support a primary challenger to Murkowski.
“Few people know where they’ll be in two years from now, but I do, in the Great State of Alaska (which I love) campaigning against Senator Lisa Murkowski,” Trump said. “Get any candidate ready, good or bad, I don’t care, I’m endorsing. If you have a pulse, I’m with you!”
That anger is likely only greater now that Murkowski voted last week to convict Trump of the “incitement of insurrection” impeachment charge. She is the only non-retiring senator up for reelection in 2022 who voted to convict Trump.
North Carolina — Open seat with potentially a Trump on the ticket
Sen. Richard Burr is retiring after 2022, and the ex-president’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, has publicly expressed her interest in running for Senate in her home state, making her a likely automatic vessel for the former president.
But if she does, it is not clear that McConnell-aligned Republicans would find her objectionable and support a different candidate.
North Carolina Rep. Mark Walker declared his candidacy for the Senate seat in December, and he has high-profile endorsements from Sens. Tim Scott of South Carolina and James Lankford of Oklahoma, among others.
Arizona — Challenger to Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly
One possible polarizing candidate is Arizona Republican Party Chairwoman Kelli Ward, who unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2016 and 2018. She is a staunch Trump ally who led the state party as it censured its own Republican governor, Doug Ducey; former Arizona Republican Sen. Jeff Flake; and Cindy McCain, the widow of the late Arizona Sen. John McCain.
It is unclear if Trump would support her, but if she ran, it is likely that McConnell’s allies would prefer a different candidate.
The combative dynamics within the state party also make the environment favorable for Trump to jump in.
Ohio and Pennsylvania — Other open seats
Trump could have his biggest success in backing primary candidates, if he wanted to go to “war” with McConnell, if he delves into the open races in Ohio and Pennsylvania: two states where the GOP needs solid nominees in order to win the seat again and replace the outgoing Republicans.
But Trump’s preferred candidate and McConnell’s preferred candidate may end up being one and the same.
For example, Ohio Senate candidate Jane Timken strongly referenced Trump in her campaign launch, and Trump endorsed her when she successfully ran to chair the Ohio GOP and ousted an ally of Trump critic John Kasich, the former Republican governor of the state. But she is not necessarily objectionable to Republicans in the McConnell wing of the party.
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But another Ohio candidate, former state treasurer Josh Mandel, is clearly trying to outdo others with Trump loyalty. In announcing his candidacy, he said that he is running because “watching this sham and unconstitutional impeachment has made my blood boil.”
One race safe from Trump primary meddling — There was buzz that Ivanka Trump might run for Senate in Florida, where Sen. Marco Rubio is up for reelection, but she is declining to do so. A spokesperson for Rubio’s campaign told the Washington Examiner that the eldest Trump daughter offered him her support.
