Republican insiders fear President Trump’s brazen attempt to overturn the November election could haunt the party for years, jeopardizing otherwise excellent GOP prospects for winning control of Congress in 2022.
Anxiety over Trump’s refusal to concede to President-elect Joe Biden, and plans to continue as leader of the GOP after leaving the White House, peaked Wednesday when thousands of his supporters stormed the United States Capitol after encouragement from the outgoing commander in chief. The violence delayed a joint session of Congress from completing votes to certify Biden’s Electoral College victory, Vice President Mike Pence, who was presiding, and lawmakers evacuated to secure locations.
The siege of Capitol Hill unfolded less than 24 hours after Republicans lost control of the Senate, ceding the levers of power in Washington to the Democrats.
The GOP suffered twin defeats in a pair of Senate runoff elections in Georgia amid Trump’s unfounded claims the Nov. 3 election was rigged in a broad conspiracy to deny him a second term. Trump continuing to fan the flames for the next two years could keep Democratic voters uncommonly energized heading into the 2022 midterm elections and chase away suburban voters inclined to return to the Republican fold to provide some balance to the government.
“The president has to decide if he wants to lead a movement or merely manage a brand. They are two different things,” veteran Republican strategist Brad Todd said. “He’s a master at managing a brand, but leading a movement will require him to look longer term and measure victory by gaining traction for ideas, not just by his satisfaction with a single news cycle.”
Republican political strategists and some GOP elected officials are concerned that Trump’s belligerence will cost the party a prime opportunity to capitalize on historical trends and reclaim the House and Senate in Biden’s first midterm election. With two exceptions since 1980, the party holding the White House has lost seats in Congress in midterm elections. Bouncing back after two years out of power might help Republicans protect Trump’s legacy. Republican insiders wish Trump was mindful of this.
But Trump might have different ideas about what it means to lead a movement. Additionally, it is unclear if he is concerned about the future of the Republican Party. On Wednesday, Trump vowed to punish Republicans who voted to certify Biden’s Electoral College victory during remarks at a massive rally in Washington organized to protest the president-elect’s ascension. This quadrennial action by Congress has for more than a century been a mere formality and ignored by voters.
“You have to get your people to fight, and if they don’t fight, we have to primary the hell out of the ones that don’t fight. We’re going to let you know who they are,” Trump said. The president called Republicans who disagree with him “pathetic and “weak” and referred to Pence as a coward because he declined to unilaterally swing the Electoral College to Trump in his role as presiding officer.
After Trump’s supporters incited mayhem at the Capitol, he continued to insist in a video posted on Twitter that the election was stolen. However, the president implored the rioters to stand down. “You have to go home now; we have to have peace,” the president said. “We have to have law and order.”
Republicans should have an excellent chance of winning back Congress two years from now. In the House, the GOP is only a handful of seats short of the majority after flipping a dozen districts held by Democrats in the 2020 elections. With the Democrats’ two victories in Georgia, the Senate is tied 50-50. Republicans are being demoted to the minority because of Vice President-elect Kamala Harris’s tie-breaking vote, which takes effect Jan. 20 with Biden’s inauguration.
But recent polls show that a majority of Republican voters agree with Trump, in some measure, that the Nov. 3 election was unfair, if not outright stolen. The party’s activist base is ardently in agreement with the 45 president’s most aggressive claims. With Biden’s Electoral College certification a sure thing, Trump could spend the next two years waging primary challenges against so-called MAGA heretics and inciting grassroots Republicans against GOP leaders.
That could leave the party too weak and divided to win congressional seats in 2022.
That’s what many Republican insiders believe happened in Georgia, where GOP turnout was down compared to the Nov. 3, and Democratic turnout was nearly equal to general election levels, which is unusual for a post-November runoff, despite so much on the line for the party. “It’s rigged! Go vote!” will go down as the all-time worst political message ever,” Iowa GOP strategist David Kochel tweeted, referring to the essence of Trump’s pitch to Georgia Republicans.
“What concerns me is Trump’s petulance and how his people feed off that behavior. No longer do voters believe anything, it’s about loyalty and payback,” a Republican strategist in the Midwest added. “What is obvious from Georgia is that Trump, and his unique Trump voters, were willing to sacrifice something as big as control of the U.S. Senate out of spite.”
