Midterm election season commences in the Lone Star State in 2022, with the first congressional primaries and interparty showdowns occurring in Texas on March 1.
Some of the biggest House battles in the state will be settled during the primary election due to redistricting that made the seats more polarized. Though Texas gained two new seats because of population growth documented in the 2020 census, new district lines mean far fewer districts that could be considered toss-ups or close when going off of 2020 presidential votes.
Democratic showdowns
Perhaps the most-watched primary race in Texas will be the liberal vs. centrist Democratic showdown for the 28th District, which stretches from San Antonio to the U.S.-Mexico border.
Immigration attorney Jessica Cisneros, backed by the far-left PAC Justice Democrats that also supported New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and members of the so-called “Squad,” is challenging centrist incumbent Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar for the second time. Cuellar narrowly defeated Cisneros in 2020.
The winner will face a Republican apparatus eager to try to win the seat. The National Republican Congressional Committee listed the district as a top target. New district lines make the 28th slightly more Democratic-leaning, though, and analysts at Inside Elections rate the race to be likely Democratic. Sandra Whitten, the 2020 Republican nominee for the district, is among six candidates running for the seat in the GOP primary.
The newly created Austin-area 37th District could also be a Democratic battleground. Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett is moving from the 35th District to run in the heavily Democratic seat. But computer engineer Donna Imam, a successful fundraiser who challenged Republican Rep. John Carter in 2020, is also in the race for the seat.
Those in the Democratic primary to replace Doggett in the heavily Democratic 35th include Austin City Councilman Greg Casar and State Rep. Eddie Rodriguez. An internal poll in December from Caesar’s campaign found him leading Rodriguez by 25 points.
In the heavily Democratic Dallas-area 30th District, longtime Democratic Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson’s retirement prompted a crowded primary with 15 candidates on both sides. Johnson chose a preferred replacement by endorsing Jasmine Crockett, a state representative who was among the more than 60 state Democrats who fled to Washington, D.C., over the summer in order to delay Republican voting legislation.
Republican showdowns
Battles are shaping up in a few open safe Republican seats: In the newly created Houston-area 38th District, in the 1st District East of Dallas that Rep. Louie Gohmert is vacating in order to run for Texas attorney general, and in the north-of-Houston 8th District left by retiring Rep. Kevin Brady.
Four candidates are vying to replace Gohmert, including businessman Joe McDaniel, Smith County Judge Nathaniel Moran, physician assistant John Porro, and oil rig worker Aditya “A.D.” Atholi, who interned in Gohmert’s office more than a decade ago.
Eleven Republicans are seeking to succeed Brady, and high-profile Republicans have made competing endorsements among the top candidates. Former Gov. Rick Perry and Rep. Dan Crenshaw endorsed Navy SEAL Morgan Luttrell, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz endorsed his former aide Christian Collins.
As of the end of September, Luttrell led the field in fundraising and had $664,712 in cash-on-hand, with lawyer Jonathan Hullihan in second-place fundraising-wise with $81,987 in cash on hand. Collins has not yet had to file a fundraising report, but the PAC affiliated with the House Freedom Caucus has spent $328,470 in support of his candidacy.
Army veteran Wesley Hunt, who ran a close race against Democratic Rep. Lizzie Panhill Fletcher in 2020, appears to be the best-positioned candidate to win the 38th. He had over $1 million in cash on hand at the end of September, and endorsements include South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and a slew of conservative organizations such as Americans for Prosperity Action and the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List.
There is not much potential for primary upsets taking out incumbent Republicans. Chris Putnam, a former city councilman, was one of the best-funded primary challengers and had planned to challenge longtime incumbent Rep. Kay Granger, who he had run against in a competitive race in 2020. But at the last minute, Putnam decided not to file to be on the ballot.
Former President Donald Trump has endorsed nine incumbent Texas House Republicans, but he has not waded into competitive primary races.
Setting up a toss-up
Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzales is moving districts from the toss-up 15th District to the neighboring more solidly Democratic 34th District in south Texas, from which Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela is retiring.
The district Gonzales is leaving, which stretches from south of Austin to the U.S.-Mexico border, could be one of the most expensive toss-up races in the country. The field is crowded in both primaries, but the clear Republican favorite is Monica De La Cruz, who challenged Gonzales in 2020 and nearly defeated him. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is among those who endorsed her.
Speaking to reporters in December, De La Cruz pointed to Hispanic voters migrating to the Republican Party as a promising sign for her campaign. “There was an awakening in our district and that the values of the Democrat Party no longer aligned with the values of the people of South Texas,” she said.
Gonzales set off a rush to replace him on the Democratic side. Candidates include attorney Ruben Ramirez, who ran for the seat in 2016, education advocate Eliza Alvarado, and attorney John Villarreal Rigney, who suspended a judicial race to seek the congressional seat.
