The Ramadan Offensive

The New York Times‘s Alissa J. Rubin reports today on the “Ramadan Offensive” launched by Sunni insurgents in Iraq. Sandwiched between reports of assassinations and bombings, Rubin paints a pretty favorable picture of the Baghdad Security Plan:

“The main reason behind all these attacks are the signs of improvement of the security situation mentioned in the Crocker-Petraeus report,” said Tahseen al-Sheikhly, the Iraqi spokesman for the security plan, in a reference to the recent Congressional testimony of General Petraeus and the American ambassador to Iraq, Ryan C. Crocker. “The terrorist groups are just trying to say to the world that the report did not reflect the reality of the security situation in Iraq.” Mr. Sheikhly played down the recent violence, though, saying the groups were seeking publicity to compensate for their inability to conduct major offensive operations, which have been sharply curtailed by the surge. Indeed, the enormous car and truck bombs that plagued Baghdad for so long have been absent in recent weeks. But the string of attacks this week served as a reminder of the insurgency’s persistence, particularly in areas outside of Baghdad and its environs.

Indeed. This was the goal of the Baghdad security plan, and Rubin seems to concede that the plan is having the desired effect. So far this month there have been 58 American servicemen killed in Iraq–with a little luck, this should be the lowest tally in more than a year. Rubin also adds at the end of the piece that “Eight bodies were found in Baghdad on Tuesday.” This isn’t a good thing, but put in perspective, in October of last year 1,782 unidentified bodies were found in Baghdad. Those numbers declined in the spring to a minimum of 182 in April before jumping back up in June and July, but still it’s hard not to take away from this piece that, at least in Baghdad, there is real progress being made. Also of note, Rubin gives this confusing explanation of the Islamic State of Iraq:

One group, the Islamic State of Iraq, took responsibility on Tuesday for the attack in Diyala, which killed at least 18 people on Monday. The group has ties to Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, a homegrown extremist group whose leadership has foreign ties, according to American intelligence officials.

So the Islamic State of Iraq has ties to Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia whose leadership has foreign ties. Rubin mentions the Islamic State of Iraq in previous reports, referring to it as “another name for Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia,” and more frequently as an “insurgent umbrella group.” One gets the sense that Rubin doesn’t quite know what to make of this group, but Bill Roggio does. Go read his report from this summer, “Islamic State of Iraq – an al Qaeda front.”

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