Arlington County residents who have weathered the economic downturn should prepare for tax increases and cuts to schools and county services, school and county officials said.
The news comes as a sobering reminder of the reach of the recession. In past downturns, Arlington has hardly wavered. Even as neighboring jurisdictions made deep cuts in the spring, Arlington emerged relatively unscathed.
This year, however, commercial real estate assessments are expected to drop by 14 percent, compared with an expected 5 percent decline in home assessments. The resulting shortfall in property and other taxes would total more than $44 million, according to new numbers from county planners.
County Manager Ron Carlee emphasized to a meeting of county supervisors and school board members that the declines were working estimates this early in the year and could end up worse than expected.
“It’s virtually impossible to tax ourselves out of the current situation,” Carlee said, suggesting that service cuts would be felt as well.
A 4 percent property tax increase with the expected declines in assessments would bring the county close to its expected fiscal 2010 levels, Carlee said. An 8 percent increase would come closer to closing the gap for fiscal 2011, as well as take into account growth in school enrollment.
“We are trying to be mindful of the burden on the taxpayer,” county Supervisor Mary Hughes Hynes said. “But we’re also seeing increased demand — for rental assistance, for food assistance. I believe that Arlington residents, in general, don’t want people in their community to go hungry or to risk living on the streets.”
Public schools Superintendent Pat Murphy outlined potential cuts to the school system. Last year, Arlington was one of the only districts in the region able to provide its teachers with salary increases.
Murphy said support staff such as clerical workers or special education aides could be at risk, and that a small amount of money could be saved by cutting various clubs and activities as well as stipends for teacher sponsors. Cuts to summer school, too, are being considered.
“The obvious one — and I saved this for last — is looking at scenarios with class size adjustments,” Murphy said. “Anywhere from a 0.5 increase to three students — those are the extremes.”
Murphy added that he was contemplating larger classes in the upper grades to spare gains made in pre-kindergarten and early elementary school.
School Board Chairwoman Sally Baird said parents have been understanding but are wary of what’s to come.
“We’ve had a time of wonderful expansion, and this year’s word is retraction,” Baird said, adding that Arlington remained in a better position than surrounding districts. “We’re going to work to make cuts smartly and in a way that minimizes the impact on kids and instruction.”
