After smashing wins in California by House Democrats during the 2018 midterm elections, Republicans are increasingly optimistic that a looming special election could help change their fortunes in the state.
The May 12 California special election House race to fill the seat vacated by former Democratic Rep. Katie Hill has become a more competitive contest for the GOP. The Cook Political Report shifted California’s 25th Congressional District from “Lean Democratic” to a “Toss Up.”
Republicans have not picked up a House seat in California since 1998, and Hill won the district back in 2018 by 7 points when she unseated Republican incumbent Rep. Steve Knight. Hill was among seven House Democrats who picked up seats from Republicans, giving their party a 46-7 edge in the state’s delegation. Winning the district in the special election would help Republicans in their quest for a House majority, for which they need to win about 18 seats.
Hill resigned from office on Nov. 3 after nude photos of her surfaced, as well as news stories erupted detailing her relationship with a young female campaign staffer and an alleged relationship with a congressional staffer. Hill disputed the latter.
She had represented a district in northern Los Angeles County and a sliver of Ventura County that had long been a GOP stronghold, but like many suburban areas nationally, increasingly turned toward Democrats under Donald Trump’s presidency.
Although Mitt Romney won the district in 2012, Hillary Clinton picked it up in 2016 with 50% of the vote, beating Trump by a 7% margin. Presently, Democrats outnumber Republicans by 6%, with 38% of registered voters.
For the special election, the top two finishers in the all-party primary were former Navy fighter pilot Mike Garcia, a Republican, and Democratic state Assemblywoman Christy Smith. Both are considered to be strong candidates in a district that includes Democratic-leaning enclaves around Santa Clarita, but more Republican-friendly territory further north into the desert, in areas bordering on the district represented by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.
Garcia has a strong resume that appears to be resonating with voters, according to a GOP consultant’s poll from last month that showed Garcia a few points ahead of Smith.
As the son of a Mexican immigrant, Garcia attended the U.S. Naval Academy after being nominated by then-GOP Rep. Buck McKeon, who represented the district for 22 years and was chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. Garcia flew combat missions in Iraq and subsequently served for a decade as an executive on the board at Raytheon.
Smith, a former California Department of Education official, who rose through the ranks of the state agency, raised $2 million in 2018 to defeat a GOP incumbent in a state Assembly race.
The fundraising landscape in the 25th District is different than what was seen in 2018, when billionaire Michael Bloomberg through his political action committee showered Democrat challengers, such as Hill, running in red districts with millions of dollars to outraise Republican incumbents. Hill eclipsed Knight by raising $8.4 million to his $2.5 million in the last midterm election.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee already spent nearly $470,000 on attack ads against Garcia, according to a February Federal Election Commission report.
The DCCC recently completed a $1 million ad buy on healthcare attack ads against Garcia.
Garcia already had a strong fundraising operation as of mid-February, leading Smith at the time with $1.2 million to $1.1 million raised. According to the latest available FEC data, Garcia has over $277,000 cash on hand, while Smith has nearly $260,000 cash on hand.
The COVID-19 pandemic will also play a big part in this special election, as the district’s 420,928 registered voters, who are under the state’s “stay at home” orders, will receive ballots via mail to fill out and send in.
