National Democrats eye Mississippi as pick-up but locals say no dice

Though he trailed Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by double digits before the summer, there seems to be an unlikely glimmer of hope. By the end of August, the challenger was apparently only a single percentage point behind the incumbent, at least according to a Tyson Group poll published in late September.

Espy has been boosted by an upsurge in national support before his and Hyde-Smith’s Nov. 3 election, University of Mississippi political science Professor Julie Wronski told the Washington Examiner. The contest is a rematch after the rivals both vied in the 2018 special election and run-off to replace the late Republican Sen. Thad Cochran following his retirement due to health problems.

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s endorsement, money from Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, and an ad buy by anti-President Trump group, the Lincoln Project, have all helped Espy, Wronski explained. And that national spotlight had attracted more resources, so Espy could spend more on ads and turnout organizing efforts.

“This is also somewhat a case of self-fulfilling prophecy — once party elites start treating the Espy/Hyde-Smith race as close, money and media attention come in that start making it close,” she said.

But Wronski issued a caution.

“Closer than expected is not the same as being a toss-up race. Cindy Hyde-Smith still has a considerable polling advantage over Espy. It is just not a foregone conclusion anymore that she will win,” she said.

Brian Anderson, a Mississippi University for Women political science professor, agreed the contest appears “closer than usual.” But Anderson reiterated Wronski’s warning, given Hyde-Smith beat Espy 54% to 46% in their last meeting. However, that result was the state’s tightest Senate matchup since 1988.

“You’ve got to be suspicious about that in a state like Mississippi where there’s a lot of unspoken conservatism,” he said of the Tyson Group poll. “Even Espy recognizes that he can fight real hard, get 45-47% of the vote on election night, and call it a moral victory.”

Thanks in part to national investments, Espy has an almost two-to-one fundraising edge on Hyde-Smith compared to two years ago when he was a four-to-one fundraising underdog. He had $5.4 million at the end of September to her $2.9 million.

Anderson described Espy as “energetic,” despite the coronavirus pandemic, and “charged up” by Hyde-Smith’s refusal to answer questions in a political environment where Trump is predicted to underperform nationwide. In 2016, the president won Mississippi over then-Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton by about 18 points. This cycle, he leads Biden by an average of 14 points.

Though it’s not unusual for Mississippi Republicans to decline to debate, a clip of Hyde-Smith saying last weekend that “the only people interested in debates are reporters and losing candidates” went viral on social media.

Not debating means she has dodged tough inquiries regarding her positions on healthcare, COVID-19, race relations, Mississippi’s new flag, and Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett, according to Anderson.

It means the former Democratic Mississippi state senator, who became a Republican before successfully running for agriculture commissioner, avoided queries concerning her past as well. For instance, she joked with a cattle rancher in 2018 about wanting to be “in the front row” of a “public hanging” if he invited her to one.

That being said, Espy has his own past to contend with.

Espy was forced to resign as agriculture secretary in 1994 after it emerged he and his lawyer lied to the White House when they claimed Espy didn’t know about a scholarship his then-girlfriend received from Tyson Foods’ foundation.

For the professor, Hyde-Smith’s “risk minimization or risk aversion strategy” relied on “the default conservatism in many quarters, the default pro-Trump conservatism to allow her to win.”

And it’s likely enough to secure a victory this season.

But Anderson noted Mississippi offered fertile political ground if Democrats were prepared to divert resources in the future, their move this year coming “rather late in the game.”

Espy, for example, was “getting more support than a statewide candidate has gotten from the Democrats in my memory, and I’ve lived here for 22 years,” Anderson said.

“It is pretty often that you don’t get much of a peep out of the Democrats. But that’s been changing little by little,” Anderson explained, citing the 2019 governor’s contest.

He advised national Democrats that they could bolster the state party by developing new leaders and candidates.

“One thing the Democrats have to do is a) keep African Americans in the state from getting so discouraged that they don’t turn out to vote. And b) get a growing number of white Mississippians who are fed up with conservative politics to work more deliberately and more collaboratively with black Democrats,” he said.