Michigan health officials are racing to vaccinate people of all ages as highly transmissible coronavirus variants drive up the rate of daily confirmed cases.
“The U.K. variant is certainly active in our communities, and we think that the increased transmissibility associated with that variant is playing a big role in increased numbers,” said Dr. Andrew Jameson, chief of the infectious disease division at Michigan’s Mercy Health hospital system.
More than 3.9 million doses of vaccine have been administered in Michigan since the start of the federal rollout in mid-December, according to state health department data. As of Thursday, nearly 1.4 million people had been fully vaccinated, up from about 837,000 people on March 1.
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The state has also administered at least one dose of vaccine to roughly two-thirds of its population of seniors 65 and older. With a boost in the supply of vaccines expected in the coming weeks, the state has announced that all adults 16 and older will be eligible for the vaccine on April 5.
Meanwhile, the rate of confirmed cases has risen steadily since the first week of March, starting at a seven-day daily average of 1,349 cases on March 1 and ballooning to roughly 4,100 new confirmed cases every day over the past week.
“We are seeing the [U.K. variant] predominantly in the state of Michigan,” said Dr. Josh Kooistra, chief medical officer at Spectrum Health West Michigan. “We suspect that that’s more prevalent in the community … we know that that is more communicable or more easily spread.”
The U.K. variant, often referred to as B.1.1.7, was first identified in the south of England last fall. Research from Imperial College London suggested that it may be 40% to 70% more transmissible than previous strains of the virus, but it has not been proven to cause more severe illness or death. Infectious disease experts have also reported that the vaccines currently in distribution across the United States are effective at preventing infection from the variants.
The state health department reported last week that there are currently more than 1,090 confirmed U.K. variant cases in Michigan, making it the state with the second-highest number of B.1.1.7 infections behind Florida.
Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 have likewise risen in Michigan, mostly among younger people from 30-49, a section of the population that has not had access to a vaccine. Seniors over 80 were hospitalized at their highest rates last fall, driving the surge that threatened to overwhelm hospitals across the Midwest.
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Michigan infectious disease experts are reluctant to project that the rise in hospitalizations among younger, less vulnerable people will not lead to a spike in deaths, but they are optimistic.
Deaths are often lagging indicators. From the time a patient is diagnosed, several weeks could elapse until he or she dies. During the fall surge in Michigan, sharp upticks in hospitalizations became sharp upticks in deaths about two weeks later.
“We’re not seeing that same dramatic rise that is proportional to the rising cases right now … that is actually attributable to the vaccination rates,” Jameson told the Washington Examiner. “We’re hoping that even as numbers [of vaccines administered] go up overall, that we will not see as many deaths as previously seen because of that vaccination.”
