Brian Schaffner–who writes an insightful and creative blog at the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies–explores the relationship between certain cultural/consumer preferences and presidential vote choice in this recent post. According to Schaffner, many pundits and academics believe there is a growing correlation between cultural preferences–when it comes to shopping, owning a handgun, or even views of comedians–and partisan divisions in America. He tests this proposition by looking at how support for Obama versus McCain changes in all 50 states based on variables such as the number of gun and pickup owners in the state, the frequency of Wal-Mart shopping and the popularity of Jon Stewart. Schaffner finds a strong correlation between the number of gun owners, the quantity of pickups, and the frequency of shopping at Wal-Mart, and the percentage backing McCain. As each of those indicators goes up, so does support for McCain. Jon Stewart’s another story. Using data from the 2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES), which includes over 20,000 interviews conducted in all 50 states, Schaffner finds that as ratings for Jon Stewart go up in a state, so does support for Obama. Schaffner concludes with this observation about how well his research works as a crystal ball.
This is Schaffner’s last post on the CCPS blog. He says he has to get back to his “day job.” I’ll miss his commentary and insights.
