President Trump’s aversion to the Iran nuclear deal could lead to war “in the Middle East and on the Korean Peninsula,” according to congressional Democrats.
“If the Iran agreement falls, war will become much more likely – both in the Middle East and on the Korean Peninsula – and American lives will be put at risk,” Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said Friday.
Murphy issued that statement in anticipation of Trump’s determination that the nuclear deal is not in the national security interests of the United States. The Connecticut Democrat believes the agreement, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, is an effective restraint on Iran’s nuclear program.
The worry that Trump’s Iran policy could heighten the crisis with North Korea is shared even by Democrats who opposed the nuclear deal. Some fear that U.S. criticism of the nuclear deal, despite Iran’s technical compliance with the terms of the agreement, will diminish the potential to negotiate an agreement with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.
“Our allies and adversaries alike will see this as a signal that the United States doesn’t live up to our commitments, making the United States a source of uncertainty instead of a force for solving serious problems,” New York Rep. Eliot Engel, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said Friday. “I have to ask: what major power will trust our word on potential North Korean nuclear negotiations, given how Trump is undermining the agreement with Iran?”
The obligation to honor previous U.S. commitments carried weight with the Trump administration, which twice certified under federal law that Iran is complying with the agreement and that the deal is vital to American national security. “I think it is an imperfect arms control agreement — it’s not a friendship treaty,” Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said during his confirmation hearing. “But when America gives her word, we have to live up to it and work with our allies.”
Iran has violated the deal in various ways, but none that rise to the level of a “material breach” under the terms of the accord. German intelligence officials concluded that Iran tried to buy banned nuclear material 32 times in the last year, but Germany concluded that activity did not amount to a violation of the deal.
Trump plans to declare the deal at odds with American interests, but stop short of imposing the sanctions waived by the Obama administration in order to create leverage for negotiating improvements to the agreement. Engel believes that’s not possible.
“The president’s plan doesn’t make sense,” he said. “Negotiating additional terms to the nuclear deal requires a coalition of international partners, not unilateral congressional action.”
But some lawmakers worry that Congress will face pressure to vote to break the agreement entirely after Trump makes his pronouncement, a call Murphy warned they should resist.
“It’s up to Congress to signal to the world that we are not backing out of the deal,” Murphy said. “Using the President’s decertification as an excuse to exit the agreement would shred America’s credibility at the exact moment we are trying to defuse a nuclear crisis with North Korea.”
